The COVID-19 epidemic showed inter-regional differences in Italy. We used an ecological study design and publicly available data to compare the basic reproduction number (R0), the doubling time of the infection (DT) and the COVID-19 cumulative incidence (CI), death rate, case fatality rate (CFR) and time lag to slow down up to a 50-days doubling time in the first and the second 2020 epidemic waves (δDT50) by region. We also explored socio-economic, environmental and lifestyle variables with multiple regression analysis. COVID-19 CI and CFR changed in opposite directions in the second vs. the first wave: the CI increased sixfold with no evidence of a relationship with the testing rate; the CFR decreased in the regions where it was initially higher but increased where it was lower. The R0 did not change; the initially mildly affected regions, but not those where the first wave had most severely hit, showed a greater δDT50 amplitude. Vehicular traffic, average temperature, population density, average income, education and household size showed a correlation with COVID-19 outcomes. The deadly experience in the first epidemic wave and the varying preparedness of the local health systems might have contributed to the inter-regional differences in the second COVID-19 epidemic wave.

The fitness of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) was determined using demographic studies on the F1 generation that survived after exposure to four sublethal doses (LC50, LC30, LC20 and LC10) of imidacloprid. The effects were assessed on the surviving individuals emerged from sixth-instar larvae that had ingested imidacloprid-treated chickpea pods. Age-specific parameters were found to be highest with the commencement of age and gradually decreased with the progression of age in both the treated and non-treated groups. Survivorship was reduced to 37 days after exposure to the sublethal dose of LC50 when compared with 42 days in groups not exposed to the insecticide. The highest number (17%) of unhatched eggs was recorded in insects treated with the LC50 dose of imidacloprid, whereas 98% of the eggs hatched in the unexposed group. The potential fecundity of the F1 generation females was reduced to 330 eggs/female/generation when treated with the LC50 dose compared with that of the unexposed females. The intrinsic rate of increase was found to be least in insects exposed to the LC20 dose (0.0355 females/female/day) and highest (0.0470) in the unexposed group. It took 38.83 days for H. armigera to complete one generation in the unexposed population, while this was reduced to 33.94 days after exposure to the sublethal dose of LC50. The longevity of adults decreased when the larvae were exposed to the sublethal dose of imidacloprid. The developmental time of pre-pupae and pupae significantly decreased and was least when exposed to the highest sublethal dose of the insecticide. Thus, at sublethal doses, imidacloprid caused a significant reduction in the survival and fecundity as well as increased mortality of H. armigera in the subsequent generation after exposure to the insecticide. In conclusion, imidacloprid can be successfully incorporated into integrated pest management of H. armigera.

Central limit theorems are given for the time taken for a population to increase by a factor k > 1 for a supercritical process, or to decrease by a factor k < 1 for a subcritical process. The size of errors is investigated so that confidence limits can be given for these times to O (m½) where m is the population size at t = 0.