We consider how Antarctic seals may respond to changes in climate, realizing that
anthropogenic alteration of food webs will influence these responses. The
species considered include the ice-obligate - crabeater (Lobodon carcinophaga), Weddell (Leptonychotes weddellii), Ross (Ommataphoca rossii) and leopard (Hydrurga leptonyx) seal - and the ice-tolerant Antarctic fur
seal (Arctocephalus gazella) and southern
elephant seal (Mirounga leonina). The data
analysed are from long-term censuses of Weddell seals in McMurdo Sound
(1997–2006), and of Weddell, fur and elephant seals at Arthur
Harbour, Antarctic Peninsula (1974–2005). After considering their
responses to recent changes in environmental features, as well as projected and
current changes to their habitat our conclusions are that the distribution and
abundance of 1) crabeater and Weddell seals will be negatively affected by
changes in the extent, persistence and type of annual sea ice, 2) Ross and
leopard seal will be the least negatively influenced by changes in pack ice
characteristics, although, as may be the case for crabeater and Weddell,
population size and distribution may be altered through changes in food web
dynamics, and 3) southern elephant and fur seals will respond in ways opposite
to the pack ice species, but could also be influenced most immediately by
changes in their food resources due to factors other than climate.