The course of Bipolar Disorder (BD) is highly variable, with marked inter and intra-individual differences in symptoms and functioning. In this study, we identified illness trajectories across major clinical domains that could have etiological, prognostic, and therapeutic relevance.

Using the Systematic Treatment Enhancement Program for Bipolar Disorder (STEP-BD) study, we performed univariate and multivariate trajectory modeling of depressive symptoms, manic symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. Multinomial regression was performed to identify baseline variables associated with poor outcome trajectories.

Depressive symptoms predominated, with most subjects being found in trajectories characterized by various degrees of depressive symptoms and 13% of subjects being classified in a poor outcome ‘persistently depressed’ trajectory. Most subjects experienced few manic symptoms, although approximately 10% of subjects followed a trajectory of persistently manic symptoms. Trajectory analysis of psychosocial functioning showed impairment in most of the sample, with little improvement during follow up. Multi-trajectory analyses highlighted significant impairment in subjects with persistently mixed and persistently depressed trajectories of illness. In general, poor outcome trajectories were marked by lower educational attainment, higher unemployment and disability, and a greater likelihood of adverse clinical features (rapid cycling and suicide attempts) and comorbid diagnoses (anxiety disorders, PTSD, and substance abuse/dependence disorders).

Subjects with BD can be classified into several trajectories of clinically relevant domains that are prognostically relevant and show differing degrees of associations with a broad range of negative clinical risk factors. The highest level of psychosocial disability was found in subjects with chronic mixed and depressive symptoms, who show limited improvement despite guideline-based treatment.

The long-term outcomes of bipolar disorder range from lasting remission to chronic course or frequent recurrences requiring admissions. The distinction between bipolar I and II disorders has limited utility in outcome prediction. It is unclear to what extent the clinical course of bipolar disorder predicts long-term outcomes.

A representative sample of 191 individuals diagnosed with bipolar I or II disorder was recruited and followed for up to 5 years using a life-chart method. We previously described the clinical course over the first 18 months with dimensional course characteristics and latent classes. Now we test if these course characteristics predict long-term outcomes, including time ill (time with any mood symptoms) and hospital admissions over a second non-overlapping follow-up period in 111 individuals with available data from both 18 months and 5 years follow-ups.

Dimensional course characteristics from the first 18 months prospectively predicted outcomes over the following 3.5 years. The proportion of time depressed, the severity of depressive symptoms and the proportion of time manic predicted more time ill. The proportion of time manic, the severity of manic symptoms and depression-to-mania switching predicted a greater likelihood of hospital admissions. All predictions remained significant after controlling for age, sex and bipolar I v. II disorder.

Differential associations with long-term outcomes suggest that course characteristics may facilitate care planning with greater predictive validity than established types of bipolar disorders. A clinical course dominated by depressive symptoms predicts a greater proportion of time ill. A clinical course characterized by manic episodes predicts hospital admissions.

Individual variation in the clinical course of bipolar disorder may have prognostic and therapeutic implications but is poorly reflected in current classifications. We aimed to establish a typology of the individual clinical trajectories based on detailed prospective medium-term follow-up.

Latent class analysis (LCA) of nine characteristics of clinical course (time depressed, severity of depression, stability of depression, time manic, severity of mania, stability of mania, mixed symptoms, mania-to-depression and depression-to-mania phase switching) derived from life charts prospectively tracking the onsets and offsets of (hypo)manic, depressive, mixed and subsyndromal episodes in a representative sample of 176 patients with bipolar disorder.

The best-fitting model separated patients with bipolar disorder into large classes of episodic bipolar (47%) and depressive type (32%), moderately sized classes characterized by prolonged hypomanias (10%) and mixed episodes (5%) and five small classes with unusual course characteristics including mania-to-depression and depression-to-mania transitions and chronic mixed affective symptoms. This empirical typology is relatively independent of the distinction between bipolar disorder type I and type II. Lifetime co-morbidity of alcohol use disorders is characteristic of the episodic bipolar course type.

There is potential for a new typology of clinical course based on medium-term naturalistic follow-up of a representative clinical sample of patients with bipolar disorder. Predictive validity and stability over longer follow-up periods remain to be established.

Aims — To investigate in persons with mental disorders 1) the patterns of clinical course and their frequencies, 2) the impact of clinical course on two social dimensions of outcome, such as disability and quality of life. Methods — Study conducted with a longitudinal design in the “real world” of community mental health services. Clinical course was retrospectively assessed by using an instrument developed by our group, taking into account previous literature in this area; disability and quality of life were measured, respectively, with the WHO—Disability Assessment Schedule and the Lancashire Quality of Life Profile. Results — In patients with non affective psychosis, continuous and episodic course showed the same tendency to occur, whereas in subjects with affective disorders (either psychotic or neurotic) episodic course was more frequent. Continuous course was associated with higher levels of disability and lower quality of life in psychotic patients, while a poorer quality of life in some areas was associated with episodic course in patients with non psychotic disorders. Conclusions — The impact of clinical course on social disability and quality of life is different depending upon the specific diagnostic category. This suggests that specific and individualised interventions should be provided in order to prevent the negative impact of clinical course on life conditions of persons with mental disorders.

the study has been supported by a Grant from MURST 60% to Prof. Mirella Ruggeri and Fondi 1% per la Ricerca Sanitaria Finalizzata 2001 Ministry of Health, to Professor M. Tansella.

Epistaxis can be caused or exacerbated by anticoagulant and antiplatelet therapy. This prospective study assessed the prevalence of epistaxis in patients taking anticoagulant and antiplatelet medication, and monitored differences in patients’ clinical courses.

Prospective data were collected for consecutive patients referred with epistaxis from the emergency department over a seven-month period. Emergency department records were used to investigate prevalence and referral rates.

Over the study period, 290 patients presented to the emergency department with epistaxis; this represented 0.9 per cent of all emergency attendances. Of these patients, 119 (39 per cent) were referred on to the ENT department, 62 per cent of whom were currently taking anticoagulant or antiplatelet medication. Patients taking anticoagulant and antiplatelet medication were a significantly older group (relative risk 1.50 (1.08–2.28), p = 0.01) requiring longer in-patient stays (relative risk 2.50 (1.01–4.97), p = 0.01) and more aggressive local haemostasis measures. Most patients taking warfarin had an international normalised ratio outside the appropriate range for their disease. Hypertension was not a factor in these patients’ clinical course.

Increasingly, emergency and ENT departments are being presented with epistaxis in patients taking anticoagulant or antiplatelet medication. A better understanding of such medication and its effects may enable more effective management of these patients.