This paper builds a comprehensive supply chain model of the US broiler industry that accounts for corn and soybean meal, feed mills, breeders, hatcheries, grow-out farms, broiler processing, value-added processing, and international trade. The model is calibrated and simulated to analyze the effects of (1) corn and soybeans tariffs imposed by China and (2) change in the Canadian tariff-rate quota proposed under US–Mexico–Canada–Agreement. The first scenario indicates that feed price falls while supply increases, which decreases the production costs of breeders and grow-out farms. The second scenario shows that exports to Canada rise at the expense of exports to Mexico.

Some suppliers of broilers without giblets (WOG) offer customers a choice between paying Urner Barry's WOG quote or a formula price based on futures prices. From a buyer's perspective, the formula price examined in this study is second-degree stochastic dominant. The formula price allows the seller to set perfect cross-hedges of WOGs with corn and soymeal. Stochastic dominance and mean variance results suggested that the seller's dominant strategy would shift from the Urner Barry quote to the hedged formula price as risk aversion increased. Input-based formula pricing may be usefully extended to other industries.