Bread wheat and durum wheat genotypes were grown in field experiments at two locations in New South Wales, Australia across several years and using two sowing times (‘early’ v. ‘late’). Genotypes were grouped based on genetic similarity. Grain yield, grain size, soil characteristics and daily weather data were collected. The weather data were used to calculate water and heat stress indices for four key growth periods around flowering. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) was used to predict grain yield and to identify the most influential features (a combination of index and growth period). A novel approach involving the crop water supply–demand ratio effectively summarized water relations during growth. LASSO predicted grain yield quite well (adjusted R2 from 0.57 to 0.98), especially in a set of durum genotypes. However, the addition of other important variables such as lodging score, disease incidence, weed incidence and insect damage could have improved modelling results. Growth period 2 (30 days pre-flowering up to flowering) was the most sensitive for yield loss from heat stress and water stress for most features. Although one group of bread wheat genotypes was more sensitive to water stress (drought) in period 3 (20 days pre-flowering to 10 days post-flowering). Evapotranspiration was a significant positive feature but only in the vegetative phase (pre-flowering, period 1). This study confirms the usefulness of LASSO modelling as a technique to make predictions that could be used to identify genotypes that are suitable candidates for further investigation by breeders for their stress-tolerance ability.

We consider signal denoising via transform-domain shrinkage based on a novel risk criterion called the minimum probability of error (MPE), which measures the probability that the estimated parameter lies outside an ε-neighborhood of the true value. The underlying parameter is assumed to be deterministic. The MPE, similar to the mean-squared error (MSE), depends on the ground-truth parameter, and therefore, has to be estimated from the noisy observations. The optimum shrinkage parameter is obtained by minimizing an estimate of the MPE. When the probability of error is integrated over ε, it leads to the expected ℓ1 distortion. The proposed MPE and ℓ1 distortion formulations are applicable to various noise distributions by invoking a Gaussian mixture model approximation. Within the realm of MPE, we also develop a specific extension to subband shrinkage. The denoising performance of MPE turns out to be better than that obtained using the minimum MSE-based approaches formulated within Stein's unbiased risk estimation (SURE) framework, especially in the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime. Performance comparisons with three benchmarking algorithms carried out on electrocardiogram signals and standard test signals taken from the Wavelab toolbox show that the MPE framework results in SNR gains particularly for low input SNR.

In this paper, we are interested in estimation problem for the drift parameters matrices of m independent multivariate diffusion processes. More specifically, we consider the case where the m-parameters matrices are supposed to satisfy some uncertain constraints. Given such an uncertainty, we develop shrinkage estimators which improve over the performance of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). Under an asymptotic distributional quadratic risk criterion, we study the relative dominance of the established estimators. Further, we carry out simulation studies for observation periods of small and moderate lengths of time that corroborate the theoretical finding for which shrinkage estimators outperform over the MLE. The proposed method is useful in model assessment and variable selection.