Gas turbines play a vital role in various industries. Timely and accurately predicting their degradation is essential for efficient operation and optimal maintenance planning. Diagnostic and prognostic outcomes aid in determining the optimal compressor washing intervals. Diagnostics detects compressor fouling and estimates the trend up to the current time. If the forecast indicates fast progress in the fouling trend, scheduling offline washing during the next inspection event or earlier may be crucial to address the fouling deposit comprehensively. This approach ensures that compressor cleaning is performed based on its actual health status, leading to improved operation and maintenance costs. This paper presents a novel prognostic method for gas turbine degradation forecasting through a time-series analysis. The proposed approach uses the Temporal Fusion Transformer model capable of capturing time-series relationships at different scales. It combines encoder and decoder layers to capture temporal dependencies and temporal-attention layers to capture long-range dependencies across the encoded degradation trends. Temporal attention is a self-attention mechanism that enables the model to consider the importance of each time step degradation in the context of the entire degradation profile of the given health parameter. Performance data from multiple two-spool turbofan engines is employed to train and test the method. The test results show promising forecasting ability of the proposed method multiple flight cycles into the future. By leveraging the insights provided by the method, maintenance events and activities can be scheduled in a proactive manner. Future work is to extend the method to estimate remaining useful life.

With the wide application of quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), the requirements for their safety and reliability are becoming increasingly stringent. In this paper, based on the feedback of airframe performance health perception information and the predictive function control strategy, the autonomous maintenance of a quadrotor UAV with multi-actuator degradation is realised. Autonomous maintenance architecture is constructed by the predictive maintenance (PdM) idea and the Laguerre function model predictive pontrol (LF-MPC) strategy. Using the two-stage Kalman filter (TSKF) method, based on the established UAV degradation model, the aircraft state and actuator degradation state are predicted simultaneously. For the predictive perception of system health, on the one hand, the system health degree (HD) based on Mahalanobis distance is defined by the degree of airframe state deviation from the expected state, and then the failure threshold of the UAV is obtained. On the other hand, according to the degradation state of each actuator, a comprehensive degradation variable fused with different weight coefficients of multiple actuators degradation is used to obtain the probability density function (PDF) of remaining useful life (RUL) prediction. For the autonomous maintenance of system health, the LF-MPC weight matrixes are adjusted adaptively in real-time based on the HD evaluation, to achieve a compromise balance between UAV performance and control effect, and greatly extend the working time of UAV. Simulation results verified the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) models aim to estimate remaining useful life (RUL) of complex systems, enabling lower maintenance costs and increased availability. A substantial body of work considers the development and testing of new models using the NASA C-MAPSS dataset as a benchmark. In recent work, the use of ensemble methods has been prevalent. This paper proposes two adaptations to one of the best-performing ensemble methods, namely the Convolutional Neural Network – Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) network developed by Li et al. (IEEE Access, 2019, 7, pp 75464–75475)). The first adaptation (adaptable time window, or ATW) increases accuracy of RUL estimates, with performance surpassing that of the state of the art, whereas the second (sub-network learning) does not improve performance. The results give greater insight into further development of innovative methods for prognostics, with future work focusing on translating the ATW approach to real-life industrial datasets and leveraging findings towards practical uptake for industrial applications.

This paper presents a novel method for quantifying the effect of ambient, environmental and operating conditions on the progression of degradation in aircraft gas turbines based on the measured engine and environmental parameters. The proposed equivalent operating time (EOT) model considers the degradation modes of fouling, erosion, and blade-tip wear due to creep strain, and expresses the actual degradation rate over the engine clock time relative to a pre-defined reference condition. In this work, the effects of changing environmental and engine operating conditions on the EOT for the core engine booster compressor and the high-pressure turbine were assessed by performance simulation with an engine model. The application to a single and multiple flight scenarios showed that, compared to the actual engine clock time, the EOT provides a clear description of component degradation, prediction of remaining useful life, and sufficient margin for maintenance action to be planned and performed before functional failure.