Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) models aim to estimate remaining useful life (RUL) of complex systems, enabling lower maintenance costs and increased availability. A substantial body of work considers the development and testing of new models using the NASA C-MAPSS dataset as a benchmark. In recent work, the use of ensemble methods has been prevalent. This paper proposes two adaptations to one of the best-performing ensemble methods, namely the Convolutional Neural Network – Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-LSTM) network developed by Li et al. (IEEE Access, 2019, 7, pp 75464–75475)). The first adaptation (adaptable time window, or ATW) increases accuracy of RUL estimates, with performance surpassing that of the state of the art, whereas the second (sub-network learning) does not improve performance. The results give greater insight into further development of innovative methods for prognostics, with future work focusing on translating the ATW approach to real-life industrial datasets and leveraging findings towards practical uptake for industrial applications.

This paper presents a novel method for quantifying the effect of ambient, environmental and operating conditions on the progression of degradation in aircraft gas turbines based on the measured engine and environmental parameters. The proposed equivalent operating time (EOT) model considers the degradation modes of fouling, erosion, and blade-tip wear due to creep strain, and expresses the actual degradation rate over the engine clock time relative to a pre-defined reference condition. In this work, the effects of changing environmental and engine operating conditions on the EOT for the core engine booster compressor and the high-pressure turbine were assessed by performance simulation with an engine model. The application to a single and multiple flight scenarios showed that, compared to the actual engine clock time, the EOT provides a clear description of component degradation, prediction of remaining useful life, and sufficient margin for maintenance action to be planned and performed before functional failure.