Childhood adversities are major preventable risk factors for poor mental and physical health. Scientific advances in this area are not matched by clinical gains for affected individuals. We reflect on novel research directions that could accelerate clinical impact.

Predicting the magnitude of the annual seasonal peak in influenza-like illness (ILI)-related emergency department (ED) visit volumes can inform the decision to open influenza care clinics (ICCs), which can mitigate pressure at the ED. Using ILI-related ED visit data from the Alberta Real Time Syndromic Surveillance Net for Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, we developed (training data, 1 August 2004–31 July 2008) and tested (testing data, 1 August 2008–19 February 2014) spatio-temporal statistical prediction models of daily ILI-related ED visits to estimate high visit volumes 3 days in advance. Our Main Model, based on a generalised linear mixed model with random intercept, incorporated prediction residuals over 14 days and captured increases in observed volume ahead of peaks. During seasonal influenza periods, our Main Model predicted volumes within ±30% of observed volumes for 67%–82% of high-volume days and within 0.3%–21% of observed seasonal peak volumes. Model predictions were not as successful during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Our model can provide early warning of increases in ILI-related ED visit volumes during seasonal influenza periods of differing intensities. These predictions may be used to support public health decisions, such as if and when to open ICCs, during seasonal influenza epidemics.

Evidence supports the role of vitamin D in various conditions of development and ageing. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) is the best indicator for current vitamin D status. However, the cost of its measurement can be prohibitive in epidemiological research. We developed and validated multivariable regression models that quantified the relationships between vitamin D determinants, measured through an in-person interview, and serum 25(OH)D concentrations. A total of 200 controls participating in a population-based case–control study in Montreal, Canada, provided a blood specimen and completed an in-person interview on socio-demographic, reproductive, medical and lifestyle characteristics and personal attributes. Serum 25(OH)D concentrations were quantified by liquid chromatography–tandem MS. Multivariable least squares regression was used to build models that predict 25(OH)D concentrations from interview responses. We assessed high-order effects, performed sensitivity analysis using the lasso method and conducted cross-validation of the prediction models. Prediction models were built for users and non-users of vitamin D supplements separately. Among users, alcohol intake, outdoor time, sun protection, dose of supplement use, menopausal status and recent vacation were predictive of 25(OH)D concentrations. Among non-users, BMI, sun sensitivity, season and recent vacation were predictive of 25(OH)D concentrations. In cross-validation, 46–47 % of the variation in 25(OH)D concentrations were explained by these predictors. In the absence of 25(OH)D measures, our study supports that predicted 25(OH)D scores may be used to assign exposure in epidemiological studies that examine vitamin D exposure.

Until recently, most archaeologists assumed that human occupation of the Dutch river area in the Neolithic period and Bronze Age was rare and predominantly seasonal. Settlement and land use were thought to be limited to abandoned alluvial ridges and aeolian dunes. However, recent archaeological research revealed that Neolithic and Bronze Age human activity occurred at many locations in the Rhine-Meuse Delta. Human settlement and agricultural land use in the Rhine-Meuse delta from at least 3200 BC to 1100 AD was much more common than previously thought. Crevasse splay complexes of active and abandoned river systems proved to have provided favourable sites for settlements. These elevated areas were suitable for agriculture, as they were fertile, easy to plough and possessed suitable hydrological conditions. In addition, people could exploit the surrounding floodplain for hunting, fishing or herding their cattle. Furthermore, the river or residual river channel was near for transport. From the start of the Middle Bronze Age B (1400 BC) occupation of crevasse splay deposits in the delta was widespread. Farmsteads were built on splays that varied in size and morphology. Some locations were abandoned after a few decades, while others remained occupied during a much longer period. During the period of occupation, the crevasse splays gradually lost their relatively high position in the landscape due to subsidence and ongoing sedimentation on the floodplain.

LIDAR data combined with digital coring databases and/or detailed soil maps have proven to be an excellent method to identify and map crevasse splays and archaeological sites on these. The resulting new maps form a major basis for archaeological prospection and preservation policy.