The focus of this paper is on obtaining a conservative but tight bound on the probability distribution for the strength of a fibrous material. The model is the chain-of-bundles probability model, and local load sharing is assumed for the fiber elements in each bundle. The bound is based upon the occurrence of two or more adjacent broken fiber elements in a bundle. This event is necessary but not sufficient for failure of the material. The bound is far superior to a simple weakest link bound based upon the failure of the weakest fiber element. For large materials, the upper bound is a Weibull distribution, which is consistent with experimental observations. The upper bound is always conservative, but its tightness depends upon the variability in fiber element strength and the volume of the material. In cases where the volume of material and the variability in fiber strength are both small, the bound is believed to be virtually the same as the true distribution function for material strength. Regarding edge effects on composite strength, only when the number of fibers is very small is a correction necessary to reflect the load-sharing irregularities at the edges of the bundle.

Let X1, X2, · ··, Xn be independent random variables such that ai ≦ Xi ≦ bi, i = 1,2,…n. A class of upper bounds on the probability P(S−ES ≧ nδ) is derived where S = Σf(Xi), δ > 0 and f is a continuous convex function. Conditions for the exponential convergence of the bounds are discussed.