To ascertain which of the Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI) 2010, Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII®) and Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) best predicted BMI and waist-to-hip circumference ratio (WHR).

Body size was measured at baseline (1990–1994) and in 2003–2007. Diet was assessed at baseline using a FFQ, along with age, sex, socio-economic status, smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity and country of birth. Regression coefficients and 95 % CI for the association of baseline dietary scores with follow-up BMI and WHR were generated using multivariable linear regression, adjusting for baseline body size, confounders and energy intake.

Population-based cohort in Melbourne, Australia.

Included were data from 11 030 men and 16 774 women aged 40–69 years at baseline.

Median (IQR) follow-up was 11·6 (10·7–12·8) years. BMI and WHR at follow-up were associated with baseline DII® (Q5 v. Q1 (BMI 0·41, 95 % CI 0·21, 0·61) and WHR 0·009, 95 % CI 0·006, 0·013)) and AHEI (Q5 v. Q1 (BMI −0·51, 95 % CI −0·68, −0·35) and WHR −0·011, 95 % CI −0·013, −0·008)). WHR, but not BMI, at follow-up was associated with baseline MDS (Group 3 most Mediterranean v. G1 (BMI −0·05, 95 % CI −0·23, 0·13) and WHR −0·004, 95 % CI −0·007, −0·001)). Based on Akaike’s Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion statistics, AHEI was a stronger predictor of body size than the other diet scores.

Poor quality or pro-inflammatory diets predicted overall and central obesity. The AHEI may provide the best way to assess the obesogenic potential of diet.