Biodiversity monitoring programmes should be designed with sufficient statistical power to detect population change. Here we evaluated the statistical power of monitoring to detect declines in the occupancy of forest birds on Christmas Island, Australia. We fitted zero-inflated binomial models to 3 years of repeat detection data (2011, 2013 and 2015) to estimate single-visit detection probabilities for four species of concern: the Christmas Island imperial pigeon Ducula whartoni, Christmas Island white-eye Zosterops natalis, Christmas Island thrush Turdus poliocephalus erythropleurus and Christmas Island emerald dove Chalcophaps indica natalis. We combined detection probabilities with maps of occupancy to simulate data collected over the next 10 years for alternative monitoring designs and for different declines in occupancy (10–50%). Specifically, we explored how the number of sites (60, 128, 300, 500), the interval between surveys (1–5 years), the number of repeat visits (2–4 visits) and the location of sites influenced power. Power was high (> 80%) for the imperial pigeon, white-eye and thrush for most scenarios, except for when only 60 sites were surveyed or a 10% decline in occupancy was simulated over 10 years. For the emerald dove, which is the rarest of the four species and has a patchy distribution, power was low in almost all scenarios tested. Prioritizing monitoring towards core habitat for this species only slightly improved power to detect declines. Our study demonstrates how data collected during the early stages of monitoring can be analysed in simulation tools to fine-tune future survey design decisions.

Documenting phylogenetic diversity for conservation practice allows elucidation of ecosystem functioning and processes by highlighting the commonality and divergence of species’ functional traits within their evolutionary context. Conserving distinct evolutionary histories has intrinsic value, and the conservation of phylogenetically diverse communities is more likely to preserve distinct or relic evolutionary lineages. We explored the potential for anthropogenic forest fragmentation to act as a selective filter of avian phylogenetic diversity within the community of forest-dependent birds of the critically endangered Indian Ocean Coastal Belt Forest (IOCBF), South Africa. We conducted avian point count surveys during the austral breeding season, and calculated fragmentation metrics of forest structural complexity, patch size and isolation. We constructed a maximum likelihood phylogeny using the combined analysis of two mitochondrial genes and three nuclear markers and measured the influence of the fragmentation metrics on six measures of phylogenetic diversity. Our results indicated that the avian community was variously affected by anthropogenic forest fragmentation, with the different metrics of phylogenetic diversity responding with no definitive overall pattern. However, forest structural complexity emerged as an important metric explaining phylogenetic structuring. While the avian community’s phylogenetic diversity displayed resilience to anthropogenic fragmentation, previous research showed a reduction in functional diversity along the fragmentation gradient. Therefore, we recommend studies that especially aim to guide conservation management, incorporate both phylogenetic and functional diversity measures to sufficiently interrogate communities’ resilience to the threats under investigation.