We consider the conditional mean risk allocation for an insurance pool, as defined by Denuit and Dhaene (2012). Precisely, we study the asymptotic behavior of the respective relative contributions of the participants as the total loss of the pool tends to infinity. The numerical illustration in Denuit (2019) suggests that the application of the conditional mean risk sharing rule may produce a linear sharing in the tail of the total loss distribution. This paper studies the validity of this empirical finding in the class of compound Panjer–Katz sums consisting of compound Binomial, compound Poisson, and compound Negative Binomial sums with either Gamma or Pareto severities. It is demonstrated that such a behavior does not hold in general since one term may dominate the other ones conditional of large total loss.

Using risk-reducing properties of conditional expectations with respect to convex order, Denuit and Dhaene [Denuit, M. and Dhaene, J. (2012). Insurance: Mathematics and Economics 51, 265–270] proposed the conditional mean risk sharing rule to allocate the total risk among participants to an insurance pool. This paper relates the conditional mean risk sharing rule to the size-biased transform when pooled risks are independent. A representation formula is first derived for the conditional expectation of an individual risk given the aggregate loss. This formula is then exploited to obtain explicit expressions for the contributions to the pool when losses are modeled by compound Poisson sums, compound Negative Binomial sums, and compound Binomial sums, to which Panjer recursion applies. Simple formulas are obtained when claim severities are homogeneous. A couple of applications are considered: first, to a peer-to-peer insurance scheme where participants share the first layer of their respective risks while the higher layer is ceded to a (re)insurer; second, to survivor credits to be shared among surviving participants in tontine schemes.

We show that if a unital injective endomorphism of a $C^{\ast }$-algebra admits a transfer operator, then both of them are compressions of mutually inverse automorphisms of a bigger algebra. More generally, every interaction group – in the sense of Exel – extending an action of an Ore semigroup by injective unital endomorphisms of a $C^{\ast }$-algebra, admits a dilation to an action of the corresponding enveloping group on another unital $C^{\ast }$-algebra, of which the former is a $C^{\ast }$-subalgebra: the interaction group is obtained by composing the action with a conditional expectation. The dilation is essentially unique if a certain natural condition of minimality is imposed, and it is faithful if and only if the interaction group is also faithful.

In the spirit of the axiomatic approach by Rogers (1998) we show the equivalence between a set of assumptions on the behaviour of prices and the existence of a representation of these prices as conditional expectations. We rely on only weak assumptions and avoid any a priori modelling of negligible events or of any market filtration. Rather, both endogenously emerge along with the representation as conditional expectations.

In this short note we introduce a notion called quantum injectivity of locally compact quantum groups, and prove that it is equivalent to amenability of the dual. In particular, this provides a new characterization of amenability of locally compact groups.

We consider an r component system having an arbitrary binary monotone structure function. We suppose that shocks occur according to a point process and that, independent of what has already occurred, each new shock is one of r different types, with respective probabilities p1, …, pr. We further suppose that there are given integers n1, …, nr such that component i fails (and remains failed) when there have been a total of ni type-i shocks. Letting L be the time at which the system fails, we are interested in using simulation to estimate E[L], E[L2], and P(L > t). We show how to efficiently accomplish this when the point process is (i) a Poisson, (ii) a renewal, and (iii) a Hawkes process.

Albrecher et al. (Albrecher, H., Mayer Ph., Schoutens, W. (2008) General lower bounds for arithmetic Asian option prices. Applied Mathematical Finance, 15, 123–149) have proposed model-independent lower bounds for arithmetic Asian options. In this paper we provide an alternative and more elementary derivation of their results. We use the bounds as control variates to develop a simple Monte Carlo method for pricing contracts with Asian-style features. The conditioning idea that is inherent in our approach also inspires us to propose a new semi-analytic pricing approach. We compare both approaches and conclude that these both have their merits and are useful in practice. In particular, we point out that our newly proposed Monte Carlo method allows to deal with Asian-style products that appear in insurance (e.g., unit-linked contracts) in a very efficient way, and outperforms other known Monte Carlo methods that are based on control variates.

Suppose that N is a ℤ+-valued random variable and that X,X1,X2,… is a sequence of independent and identically distributed ℤ+ random variables independent of N. In this paper we are interested in properties of the conditional variable In particular, we want to know the asymptotic behavior of the conditional mean ENk or the conditional variance varNk as k→∞. We consider the cases when X is Poisson and when X is mixed Poisson. The problem is motivated by modeling loss reserves in nonlife insurance.

In this paper we further investigate the problem considered by Mizuno (2006) in the special case of identically distributed signals. Specifically, we first propose an alternative sufficient condition of crossing type for the convex order to hold between the conditional expectations given signal. Then, we prove that the bivariate (2,1)-increasing convex order ensures that the conditional expectations are ordered in the convex sense. Finally, the L2 distance between the quantity of interest and its conditional expectation given signal (or expected conditional variance) is shown to decrease when the strength of the dependence increases (as measured by the (2,1)-increasing convex order).

We consider a Poisson cluster model, motivated by insurance applications. At each claim arrival time, modeled by the point of a homogeneous Poisson process, we start a cluster process which represents the number or amount of payments triggered by the arrival of a claim in a portfolio. The cluster process is a Lévy or truncated compound Poisson process. Given the observations of the process over a finite interval, we consider the expected value of the number and amount of payments in a future time interval. We also give bounds for the error encountered in this prediction procedure.

Let S1 and S2 be two signals of a random variable X, where G1(s1 ∣ x) and G2(s2 ∣ x) are their conditional distributions given X = x. If, for all s1 and s2, G1(s1 ∣ x) - G2(s2 ∣ x) changes sign at most once from negative to positive as x increases, then the conditional expectation of X given S1 is greater than the conditional expectation of X given S2 in the convex order, provided that both conditional expectations are increasing. The stochastic order of the sufficient condition is equivalent to the more stochastically increasing order when S1 and S2 have the same marginal distribution and, when S1 and S2 are sums of X and independent noises, it is equivalent to the dispersive order of the noises.

We investigate a class of triangular UHF algebras which have the special property that there exists a sequence of unital multiplicative contractive finite-rank conditional expectations of the algebra into itself, which converges strongly to the identity, whose ranges form an increasing chain with dense union. A partial classification is given in terms of a local finiteness property, and a delimiting counterexample is obtained. Associated inverse limit algebras are considered, and a characterization of residually finite dimensional triangular AF algebras is obtained.

1991 Mathematics Subject Classification: 47D25, 46J35.

In this paper, multivariate strict sense stationary stochastic processes are considered. It is shown that there exists a universal function by means of which the conditional expectation of any stationary process with respect to its past can be represented. This requires no ergodicity assumptions. The important implications of this result in the evaluation of the achievable performance in certain dynamic estimation problems with incomplete statistical information are also discussed.

In this paper we establish a characterization theorem for a general class of life-testing models based on a relationship between conditional expectation and the failure rate function. As a simple application of the theorem, we characterize the gamma, Weibull, and Gompertz distributions, since they have many probabilistic and statistical properties useful in both biometry and engineering reliability.

For two-dimensional spatial data, a spatial unilateral autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model of first order is defined and its properties studied. The spatial correlation properties for these models are explicitly obtained, as well as simple conditions for stationarity and conditional expectation (interpolation) properties of the model. The multiplicative or linear-by-linear first-order spatial models are seen to be a special case which have proved to be of practical use in modeling of two-dimensional spatial lattice data, and hence the more general models should prove to be useful in applications. These unilateral models possess a convenient computational form for the exact likelihood function, which gives proper treatment to the border cell values in the lattice that have a substantial effect in estimation of parameters. Some simulation results to examine properties of the maximum likelihood estimator and a numerical example to illustrate the methods are briefly presented.

The constancy of the conditional expectation of some appropriate functions of order statistics on some others, is used to characterize the geometric distribution among the discrete distributions.

In some applications of diffusion theory it is of interest to study the expected time of the first exit from an interval given that a specified boundary will be the first exitpoint. This problem is considered here for a regular Feller process, and applications are given.

Recent characterizations of probability measures by use of conditional expectations have included many probability measures defined on subsets of the real line. This paper contains results which allow similar characterizations by use of conditional expectations but are valid for probability measures defined on subsets of an arbitrary space. In the special case of a measure defined on subsets of R' the result is not always as sharp as known results, but these theorems can be applied to measures defined on subsets of Rn with n ≧ 1.