There has been a drastic decline in the child sex ratio (number of females per 1000 males between ages 0 and 4) in India and many of its states. This study aimed to examine if prenatal factors, such as change in sex ratio at birth, or postnatal factors, such as change in relative mortality of females and males, contribute to this more by analysing the dynamics of the child sex ratio. Changes in the child sex ratio during 2001–2011 were decomposed into a ‘fertility’ component attributable to prenatal sex selection and a ‘mortality’ component attributable to sex differentials in postnatal survival at the country as well as the state level. Between the prenatal factor and the postnatal factor, the contribution of the latter to the declining child sex ratio has been greater than the former in India as a whole and in most of the states. By focusing on both prenatal and postnatal factors, the imbalance in the child sex ratio in the country can be reduced to a large extent.

This study examined the relationship between the total fertility rate and under-five child sex ratio to understand the role of fertility in the phenomenon of missing girls in India. Using data from the last four decennial censuses for the fifteen major states of India and their districts, covering more than 90% of the population of India, the study showed that there was a major decline in the female to male child sex ratio from 1981 to 2011 in most of the major Indian states and their districts. The panel regression model showed that the total fertility rate was significantly associated with the under-five child sex ratio at the district level for the 30-year period from 1981 to 2011 in India, even after controlling for other factors and any other unobserved heterogeneity. This indicates that areas of India with the highest fertility had the higher female to male child sex ratio, while low-fertility districts had a more male-biased sex ratio.