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1 results

  • The cost of a general stochastic epidemic

  • J. Gani, D. Jerwood
  • Journal:
    Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 9 / Issue 2 / June 1972
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    14 July 2016, pp. 257-269
    Print publication:
    June 1972

  • This paper is concerned with the cost Cis = aWis + bTis (a, b > 0) of a general stochastic epidemic starting with i infectives and s susceptibles; Tis denotes the duration of the epidemic, and Wis the area under the infective curve. The joint Laplace-Stieltjes transform of (Wis, Tis) is studied, and a recursive equation derived for it. The duration Tis and its mean Nis are considered in some detail, as are also Wis and its mean Mis. Using the results obtained, bounds are found for the mean cost of the epidemic.