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1 results

  • Exact results for a secretary problem

  • Part of
  • M. P. Quine, J. S. Law
  • Journal:
    Journal of Applied Probability / Volume 33 / Issue 3 / September 1996
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    14 July 2016, pp. 630-639
    Print publication:
    September 1996

  • We consider the following secretary problem: items ranked from 1 to n are randomly selected without replacement, one at a time, and to ‘win' is to stop at an item whose overall rank is less than or equal to s, given only the relative ranks of the items drawn so far. Our method of analysis is based on the existence of an imbedded Markov chain and uses the technique of backwards induction. In principal the approach can be used to give exact results for any value of s; we do the working for s = 3. We give exact results for the optimal strategy, the probability of success and the distribution of T, and the total number of draws when the optimal strategy is implemented. We also give some asymptotic results for these quantities as n → ∞.