Search

Skip to main content Accessibility help

Home
Search

Only show content I have access to (0)

Chapters (1)

Over 3 years (1)

From year:

To year:

Apply

Economics (1)

attractor property

Cambridge University Press (1)

View selected items
Save to my bookmarks
Export citations
Download PDF (zip)
Save to Kindle
Save to Dropbox
Save to Google Drive
Save content to
To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to .

To save content items to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Please be advised that item(s) you selected are not available.
You are about to save
Your Kindle email address

Please provide your Kindle email.

@free.kindle.com @kindle.com (service fees apply)

By using this service, you agree that you will only keep content for personal use, and will not openly distribute them via Dropbox, Google Drive or other file sharing services

1 results

5 - The Jumps Model for the Short Run
from Part IIA - The Democratic Transition
Martin Paldam, Aarhus Universitet, Denmark
Book:

The Grand Pattern of Development and the Transition of Institutions

Published online:

07 August 2021

Print publication:

19 August 2021, pp 79-93
- Chapter
- - Get access
    
    Check if you have access via personal or institutional login
    
    Log in Register
- Export citation
Summary

The Polity P-index, 1960–2016, is constant in 7,355 country-years and jumps in 637 country-years, where 199 of the jumps are larger than three Polity points. The deviation of P from the transition curve is defined as the system tension. The Jumps Model states that the transition curve is an attractor for jumps caused by random triggering events. The tensions do explain the larger jumps rather well, while small jumps are random. However, the jumps tend to be larger than the tensions, giving an overshooting pattern of cyclical adjustment. Some of the jumps are a sequence of small jumps in consecutive years. Most changes toward dictatorship are large discrete jumps, while most changes to democracy are sequences. System jumps have a strong grievance asymmetry: Weak growths give more system change, while high growth generates little extra stability.