The failure of consumption-based asset pricing models to match the
stochastic properties of the equity premium and the risk-free rate
has been attributed by some authors to frictions, transaction costs,
or durability. However, such frictions primarily would affect the
higher-frequency data components: Consumption-based pricing models
that concentrate on long-horizon returns should be more successful.
We consider two consumption-based models: time-separable utility, and
the habit model of Constantinides. We estimate a vector ARCH model
that includes the pricing kernel and the equity return, and use the
fitted model to assess the model's implications for the equity
premium and for the risk-free rate. Neither model performs well at a
quarterly horizon, but at longer horizons the Constantinides model
can match the mean and the variance of the observed equity premium,
captures time variation of the equity premium, and can better match
the observed risk-free rate. We conclude that the equity-premium and
risk-free-rate puzzles are primarily problems for shorter-horizon
returns.