Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-jn8rn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-30T20:58:39.688Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Off-Cycle and Out of Sync: How Election Timing Influences Political Representation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 March 2021

Michael T. Hartney Open the ORCID record for Michael T. Hartney [Opens in a new window]  and
Sam D. Hayes
Michael T. Hartney*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA
Sam D. Hayes
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, USA
*
Corresponding Author: Michael T. Hartney, Department of Political Science, Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill, MA02467, USA. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

States exert significant control over many different types of electoral institutions that influence the tone and direction of political representation in American democracy. Yet almost nothing is known about the consequences of the institution that has the greatest singular impact on the turnout and composition of the electorate: election timing. We argue that off-cycle elections will tend to produce governments that are not well-aligned with the political preferences of their median constituent. To empirically test this expectation, we examine the relationship between election timing and mass–elite congruence across local school district governments. Leveraging variation in election timing across districts within the same state, we find that board members are more likely to hold political preferences that are aligned with their constituents when boards are elected in on- versus off-cycle races. We conclude by discussing the implications of these findings for the study of representation and election timing, suggesting some possible avenues for future research.

Keywords

education policyinterest groupselectionsinterest groups and elections
Type
Original Article
Information
State Politics & Policy Quarterly , Volume 21 , Issue 4 , December 2021 , pp. 335 - 354
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Anzia, Sarah F. 2011. “Election Timing and the Electoral Influence of Interest Groups.” The Journal of Politics 73 (2): 412–27.10.1017/S0022381611000028CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anzia, Sarah F. 2012. “The Election Timing Effect: Evidence from a Policy Intervention in Texas.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 7 (3): 209–48.10.1561/100.00011056CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anzia, Sarah F. 2013. Timing and Turnout: How Off-Cycle Elections Favor Organized Groups. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arceneaux, Kevin. 2002. “Direct Democracy and the Link Between Public Opinion and State Abortion Policy.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2 (4): 372–87.10.1177/153244000200200403CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berkman, Michael B., and Plutzer, Eric. 2005. Ten Thousand Democracies: Politics and Public Opinion in America’s School Districts. Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.Google Scholar
Berry, Christopher R. 2009. Imperfect Union: Representation and Taxation in Multilevel Governments. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511808524CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berry, Christopher R., and Gersen, Jacob E.. 2011. “Election Timing and Public Policy.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 6 (2): 103–35.10.1561/100.00010070CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, Daniel M., and Nickerson, David W.. 2011. “Can Learning Constituency Opinion Affect How Legislators Vote? Results from a Field Experiment.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 6 (1): 55–83.10.1561/100.00011019CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carey, John M., Niemi, Richard G., Powell, Lynda W., and Moncrief, Gary F.. 2006. “The Effects of Term Limits on State Legislatures: A New Survey of the 50 States.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 31 (1): 105–34.10.3162/036298006X201742CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caughey, Devin, and Warshaw, Christopher. 2018. “Policy Preferences and Policy Change: Dynamic Responsiveness in the American States, 1936–2014.” American Political Science Review 112 (2): 249–66.10.1017/S0003055417000533CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Marty, Karol, David, Noel, Hans, and Zaller, John. 2009. The Party Decides: Presidential Nominations Before and After Reform. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Collingwood, Loren, Jochim, Ashley, and Oskooii, Kassra A.R.. 2018. “The Politics of Choice Reconsidered: Partisanship, Ideology, and Minority Politics in Washington’s Charter School Initiative.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 18 (1): 61–92.10.1177/1532440017748569CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Benedictis-Kessner, Justin. 2018. “Off-Cycle and Out of Office: Election Timing and the Incumbency Advantage.” The Journal of Politics 80 (1): 119–32.10.1086/694396CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Einstein, Katherine L., and Kogan, Vladimir. 2016. “Pushing the City Limits: Policy Responsiveness in Municipal Government.” Urban Affairs Review 52 (1): 3–32.10.1177/1078087414568027CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., Wright, Gerald C., Wright, Gerald C., and McIver, John P.. 1993. Statehouse Democracy: Public Opinion and Policy in the American States. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Finley, Allysia. 2014. “School Yard Brawl.” The Wall Street Journal. September 10, 2014. https://www.wsj.com/articles/political-diary-school-yardbrawl-1410380773.Google Scholar
Flavin, Patrick. 2015. “Campaign Finance Laws, Policy Outcomes, and Political Equality in the American States.” Political Research Quarterly 68 (1): 77–88.10.1177/1065912914554041CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Elisabeth R. 1996. “Legislative Response to the Threat of Popular Initiatives.” American Journal of Political Science 40 (1): 99–128.10.2307/2111696CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grissom, Jason A. 2007. “Who Sits on School Boards in California.” Institute for Research on Education Policy and Practice report. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University.Google Scholar
Grissom, Jason A. 2009. “The Determinants of Conflict on Governing Boards in Public Organizations: The Case of California School Boards.” Journal of Public Administration Research and Theory 20 (3): 601–27.10.1093/jopart/mup043CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hajnal, Zoltan L., and Lewis, Paul G.. 2003. “Municipal Institutions and Voter Turnout in Local Elections.” Urban Affairs Review 38 (5): 645–68.10.1177/1078087403038005002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hajnal, Zoltan, Lewis, Paul G., and Louch, Hugh. 2002. “Municipal Elections in California: Turnout, Timing, and Competition.” Citeseer.Google Scholar
Hanmer, Michael J. 2009. Discount Voting: Voter Registration Reforms and Their Effects. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howell, William G., ed. 2005. Besieged: School Boards and the Future of Education Politics. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Hartney, Michael, and Sam, Hayes. 2020. “Replication Data for: Off-Cycle and Out of Sync: How Election Timing Influences Political Representation.” UNC Dataverse. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.15139/S3/DFKFE5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kogan, Vladimir, Lavertu, Stéphane, and Peskowitz, Zachary. 2018. “Election Timing, Electorate Composition, and Policy Outcomes: Evidence from School Districts.” American Journal of Political Science 62 (3): 637–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2009. “Gay Rights in the States: Public Opinion and Policy Responsiveness.” American Political Science Review 103 (3): 367–86.10.1017/S0003055409990050CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lax, Jeffrey R., and Phillips, Justin H.. 2012. “The Democratic Deficit in the States.” American Journal of Political Science 56 (1): 148–66.10.1111/j.1540-5907.2011.00537.xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matsusaka, John G. 2010. “Popular Control of Public Policy: A Quantitative Approach.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 5 (2): 133–67.10.1561/100.00009055CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mercury News Editorial. 2014. “Tuck for California Schools Superintendent.” https://www.mercurynews.com/2014/07/31/mercury-newseditorial-tuck-for-california-schools-superintendent/.Google Scholar
Moe, Terry M. 2005. “Teacher Unions and School Board Elections.” In Besieged: School Boards and the Future of Education Politics, ed. Howell, William G., 254–87. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Moe, Terry M. 2006. “Political Control and the Power of the Agent.” The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization 22 (1): 1–29.10.1093/jleo/ewj011CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moe, Terry M. 2011. Special Interest: Teachers Unions and America’s Public Schools. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
National Conference of State Legislatures. 2016. “The Canvass: Election Dates May or May Not Matter.”Google Scholar
Nicholson-Crotty, Sean, and Meier, Kenneth J.. 2002. “Size Doesn’t Matter: In Defense of Single-State Studies.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2 (4): 411–22.10.1177/153244000200200405CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oliver, J. Eric, and Ha, Shang E.. 2007. “Vote Choice in Suburban Elections.” American Political Science Review 101 (3): 393–408.10.1017/S0003055407070323CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orange County Register. 2014. “Editorial: Marshall Tuck for State Schools Chief.” https://www.ocregister.com/2014/10/22/editorial-marshall-tuck-for-state-schoolschief/.Google Scholar
Payson, Julia A. 2017. “When Are Local Incumbents Held Accountable for Government Performance? Evidence from US School Districts.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 42 (3): 421–48.10.1111/lsq.12159CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Bingham G. 2006. “Election Laws and Representative Governments: Beyond Votes and Seats.” British Journal of Political Science 36 (2): 291–315.10.1017/S0007123406000160CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, Bingham G. Jr, and Vanberg, Georg S.. 2000. “Election Laws, Disproportionality and Median Correspondence: Implications for Two Visions of Democracy.” British Journal of Political Science 30 (3): 383–411.Google Scholar
Reckhow, Sarah, Grossmann, Matt, and Evans, Benjamin C.. 2015. “Policy Cues and Ideology in Attitudes Toward Charter Schools.” Policy Studies Journal 43 (2): 207–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
San Francisco Chronicle. 2014. “Chronicle Recommends: Governor, Other Key Offices.”Google Scholar
Tausanovitch, Chris, and Warshaw, Christopher. 2013. “Measuring Constituent Policy Preferences in Congress, State Legislatures, and Cities.” The Journal of Politics 75 (2): 330–42.10.1017/S0022381613000042CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tausanovitch, Chris, and Warshaw, Christopher. 2014. “Representation in Municipal Government.” American Political Science Review 108 (3): 605–41.10.1017/S0003055414000318CrossRefGoogle Scholar
The Times Editorial Board. 2014. “Endorsement: Marshall Tuck for State Superintendent of Public Instruction.” The Los Angeles Times.Google Scholar
U-T San Diego Editorial Board. 2014. “State Schools Chief Torlakson Can’t Run on His Record.”Google Scholar
Wilson, James Q. 1973. Political Organizations. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Wood, Curtis. 2002. “Voter Turnout in City Elections.” Urban Affairs Review 38 (2): 209–31.10.1177/107808702237659CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Hartney and Hayes Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.15139/S3/DFKFE5
Link
Supplementary material: File

Hartney and Hayes supplementary material

Hartney and Hayes supplementary material

Download Hartney and Hayes supplementary material(File)
File 18.9 KB