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False Expectations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Amos Nathan
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Abstract

Common probabilistic fallacies and putative paradoxes are surveyed, including those arising from distribution repartitioning, from the reordering of expectation series, and from misconceptions regarding expected and almost certain gains in games of chance. Conditions are given for such games to be well-posed. By way of example, Bernoulli's “Petersburg Paradox” and Hacking's “Strange Expectations” are discussed and the latter are resolved. Feller's generalized “fair price, in the classical sense” is critically reviewed.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 51 , Issue 1 , March 1984 , pp. 128 - 136
Copyright
Copyright © Philosophy of Science Association 1984

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References

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