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Assessing climate adaptation options for cereal-based systems in the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains, South Asia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 August 2019

K. Tesfaye Open the ORCID record for K. Tesfaye [Opens in a new window] ,
A. Khatri-Chhetri ,
P. K. Aggarwal ,
F. Mequanint Open the ORCID record for F. Mequanint [Opens in a new window] ,
P. B. Shirsath ,
C. M. Stirling ,
M. L. Jat ,
D. B. Rahut  and
O. Erenstein
K. Tesfaye*
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
A. Khatri-Chhetri
Affiliation:
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Borlaug Institute of South Asia (BISA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), New Delhi, India
P. K. Aggarwal
Affiliation:
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Borlaug Institute of South Asia (BISA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), New Delhi, India
F. Mequanint
Affiliation:
Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute (EIAR), Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
P. B. Shirsath
Affiliation:
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Borlaug Institute of South Asia (BISA), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), New Delhi, India
C. M. Stirling
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Texcoco, Mexico
M. L. Jat
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), New Delhi, India
D. B. Rahut
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Texcoco, Mexico
O. Erenstein
Affiliation:
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Texcoco, Mexico
*
Author for correspondence: K. Tesfaye, E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

New farming systems and management options are needed in South Asia as the intensive rice–wheat production system is set to become increasingly unsustainable under climate change. In the current study, six cropping systems options/treatments varying in tillage, crop establishment method, residue management, crop sequence and fertilizer and water management were evaluated using a cropping systems model under current (1980–2009) and future (2030 and 2050) climate scenarios in the state of Bihar, India. The treatments were current farmers' practice (CP), best fertilizer and water management practices, zero tillage (ZT) with no crop residue retention, ZT with partial crop residue retention (ZTPR), future conservation agriculture-based rice–wheat intensive cropping system (FCS-1) and future conservation agriculture-based maize–wheat intensive cropping system (FCS-2). The results indicate that climate change is likely to reduce rice–wheat system productivity under CP by 4% across Bihar. All the crop management options studied increased yield, water productivity and net returns over that of the CP under the current and future climate scenarios. However, the ZTPR treatment gave significantly higher relative yield, lower annual yield variability and a higher benefit-cost-ratio than the other treatments across cropping system components and climate periods. Although all the new cropping system treatments had a positive yield implication under the current climate (compared to CP), they did not contribute to adaptation under the future climate except FCS-2 in wheat. It is concluded that adaptation to future climate must integrate both cropping system innovations, and genetic improvements in stress tolerance.

Keywords

Climate changeclimate smart agriculturecrop modellingcropping systemsricewheat
Type
Climate Change and Agriculture Research Paper
Information
The Journal of Agricultural Science , Volume 157 , Issue 3 , April 2019 , pp. 189 - 210
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2019 

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Footnotes

*

Present address: Cocoa Life Crop Science Technology Platform Mondelez UK R&D Limited, Birmingham, U.K.

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