Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 March 2014
Sweden's referendum on whether to join EMU produced an emphatic No. The murder of one of the Yes side's leading representatives thus appeared not to have affected the result. Cleavages exposed in the referendum on EU membership nine years previously were even more apparent this time; yet No-voters were also to found across the political, regional and social spectrums. As well as describing the campaign and explaining the outcome, this article focuses on the campaign strategies adopted by parties and other actors. Lessons from previous campaigns had been learned by the opponents of EMU, but largely forgotten by its supporters.
Thanks for helpful comments on an earlier draft go to Karim Zendegani and to two anonymous reviewers. Thanks, too, to Jessika Wide and Svante Ersson for their help with the map in Figure 2. Responsibility for the article's contents and for all translations from Swedish are, however, mine alone. Because many of the newspaper reports cited were taken from the organs’ websites, dates may sometimes be a day earlier than those on which the reports appeared in hard copy.
2 Sjöblom, Gunnar, Party Strategies in a Multiparty System, Lund, Studentlitteratur, 1968, pp. 183–279.Google Scholar
3 Aylott, Nicholas, ‘Let's Discuss This Later: Party Responses to Euro-Division in Scandinavia’, Party Politics, 8: 4 (2002), pp. 456–7.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
4 Ingemar Wörlund and Daniel Hansson, ‘Partier och intresseorganisationer i Sverige’, in Jan Sundberg (ed.), Partier och intresseorganisationer i Norden, Copenhagen, Nordic Council of Ministers, 2001, p. 146.Google Scholar
5 Sydsvenska Dagbladet, 30 August 2003.Google Scholar
6 Rather, Sweden's staying out of monetary union after its launch in 1999 was justified by its (deliberately) failing one of the economic criteria – concerning the national currency's peg to the ecu, and later the euro – that would-be members needed to satisfy.Google Scholar
7 This decision was confirmed later the same year by the party congress.Google Scholar
8 For an economic rationale, see a public inquiry, published as Lars Calmfors et al, EMU: A Swedish Perspective, London, Kluwer, 1997.Google Scholar
9 See Mats Svegfors, ‘Nej till folkomröstning om EMU’, Svenska Dagbladet, 2 January 1999.Google Scholar
10 Dagens Nyheter, 13 May 2003.Google Scholar
11 Björn Elmbrant, ‘“President Persson”– hur fick vi honom?’, Studio Ett, P1, Stockholm, Sveriges Radio, 22–6 April 2002.Google Scholar
12 Between 17 May and 9 September, Temo indicated an average lead for the noes of nearly 13 per cent. These and other polling firms’ results since the beginning of 2000 were downloaded from Temo's website (www.temo.se) on 22 September 2003.Google Scholar
13 European Commission, Eurobarometer 59, Brussels, European Commission, 2003.Google Scholar
14 The farmers’ support for EMU caused some friction with the anti-euro Centre Party, as the two groups retain close personal, though not organizational, ties.Google Scholar
15 Dagens Industri, 13 December 2003.Google Scholar
16 Dagens Nyheter, 25 September 2003.Google Scholar
17 See, for instance, Henrik Dahlsson and Jan Å. Johansson, ‘“Europa ja – euro nej” och förnyelsen av nej-kampanjen’, p. 61; and Sören Wibe and Tony Johansson, ‘“Socialdemokrater mot EMU”– sä vanns rosornas krig om euron’, p. 96; both in Henrik Dahlsson and Jan Å. Johansson (eds), Folkets nej – elitens ja. EMU-omröstningen 2003, Stockholm, Carlsson, 2004.Google Scholar
18 Dagens Nyheter, 3 June 2003.Google Scholar
19 Aftonbladet, 24 July 2003.Google Scholar
20 Rutger Lindahl and Daniel Naurin, ‘Starkt EU-inflytande även utan euron’, Dagens Nyheter, 14 August 2003.Google Scholar
21 Dagens Nyheter, 25 September 2003. One lapse was in July, when the Centre leader stumbled into comparing the EU with the Third Reich. Another was in August, when an MEP from the Left suggested that Sweden should withdraw from the stability and growth pact.Google Scholar
22 See the exit poll Valu 2003, published in Dagens Nyheter, 15 September 2003.Google Scholar
23 Anna Lindh and Carl-Henric Svanberg, ‘Rationellt lämna Sverige’, Dagens Nyheter, 26 August 2003.Google Scholar
24 Dagens Nyheter, 29 August 2003.Google Scholar
25 Some had accused Persson of unwittingly encouraging this argument himself. Earlier he had suggested that, if Sweden voted No to EMU, the country would find it hard to avoid reconsidering fairly soon afterwards (Dagens Nyheter, 21 December 2002). He doubtless hoped that this would encourage voters to accept EMU's inevitability. But they may actually have quite liked the idea of spreading risk in this way.Google Scholar
26 Göran Persson and Lars Leijonborg, ‘Ett nej gäller till är 2013’, Dagens Nyheter, 31 August 2003.Google Scholar
27 One suggestion was that, instead of being run by a ‘structural council’, the funds would at least be kept ‘on high’, away from the rest of the state budget. Later still, a further mooted compromise, which some of the bourgeois parties could accept, was simply a higher target for fiscal surpluses during times of economic growth.Google Scholar
28 Göran Persson and Wanja Lundby-Wedin, ‘Vi blir överens om EMU-buffert’, Dagens Nyheter, 13 July 2003.Google Scholar
29 Anna Ekström et al., ‘Euron ger ökad trygghet för löntagarna’, Dagens Nyheter, 1 September 2003.Google Scholar
30 Aylott, ‘Let's Discuss This Later’, pp. 447–54.Google Scholar
31 Aylott, Nicholas, ‘Between Europe and Unity: The Case of the Swedish Social Democrats’, West European Politics, 20: 2 (1997), pp. 119–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
32 Leif Pagrotsky, ‘EMU ökar inte politikens makt!’, Tiden, 16 April 2003. The chair of Social Democrats Against EMU later described the publication of the article as a ‘starting gun’ for other figures in the party to announce their opposition to EMU (Wibe and Johansson, ‘Socialdemokrater mot EMU’, p. 99).Google Scholar
33 Dagens Nyheter (27 May 2003) later surveyed this general unwillingness on the part of the party's mid-level elites to engage themselves in the Yes campaign.Google Scholar
34 Aktuellt i Politiken, 29 April 2003; Dagens Nyheter, 29 April 2003.Google Scholar
35 Cf. Qvortrup, Mads H., ‘How to Lose a Referendum: The Danish Plebiscite on the Euro’, Political Quarterly, 72: 2 (2001), pp. 192–2.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
36 Helle Klein, ‘Lär av nederlaget – stärk europapolitiken’, Aftonbladet, 15 Sepember 2003.Google Scholar
37 Dagens Nyheter, 15 August 2003.Google Scholar
38 Skjeie, Hege, Lars Langengen och Libe Riebe-Mohn, ‘“Aldri mer 1972”. Behandlingen av EU-saken i Arbeiderpartiet’, Tidskrift for Samfunnsforskning, 36: 1 (1995), pp. 31–53.Google Scholar Norway's Labour Party also followed a tolerance strategy in the Norwegian referendum on EU membership in 1994. The strategy kept the party together during the campaign, but it could not swing a Yes.