1. Groups of young rats have been fed for periods up to one year on a diet consisting of raw or sterilized milk, with a biscuit made from white flour, to which were added supplements of iron, copper and manganese salts. By this method two samples of commercially sterilized milks, prepared by two different processes, have been compared with the corresponding raw milks drawn from the same bulk supplies.

2. At the end of one year the weights of the groups receiving sterilized milks were about 10 per cent, lower than those of the animals receiving raw milks from the same bulk supplies. This finding is similar to that of Drummond (1933) in a study of the relative values of raw and pasteurized milks by the same methods. It is however in considerable contrast to that of Mattick and Golding (1931) who in comparable experiments found that sterilized milk did not adequately support growth.

3. Animals receiving sterilized milks remained in excellent condition throughout the experiment and they could not be differentiated as regards general health from those which received the raw milks.

4. Adequate reproduction occurred on the raw milks, but no litters were reared. Reproduction was less good on the sterilized milks and, as with the raw milks, no litters were reared.

5. The results with the milk prepared by one sterilization process seemed on the whole better than those from the other; but the evidence was not sufficiently conclusive to make this deduction certain.

A number of recent reports emphasize the risk of zoonotic diseases and the high degree of prevalence of asymptomatic animals infected with Leptospira interrogans. This report sought to assess the prevalence of antibodies to certain serovars of L. interrogans, and to describe the association between seropositivity and risk factors associated with within-flock transmission in a mountainous region of Mexico. Overall seroprevalence to L. interrogans was 54·5% (95% confidence interval 48·3–60·7); the most frequent serovar was Icterohaemorrhagiae. The accumulation of placentas and fetuses at a site close to lambing paddocks can play a significant role as a risk factor for within-flock transmission of L. interrogans in transhumant farming systems in the municipality of Xalatlaco. The high prevalence of L. interrogans antibodies supports the hypothesis that natural foci of this zoonosis are present in sheep flocks in this area. These findings emphasize the need for planning and implementation of control programmes for ovine leptospirosis in Mexico and elsewhere.

The search for an association between disease incidence and possible risk factors using surveillance data needs to account for possible spatial and temporal correlations in underlying risk. This can be especially difficult if there are missing values for some important covariates. We present a case study to show how this problem can be overcome in a Bayesian analysis framework by adding to the usual spatio-temporal model a component for modelling the missing data.

Our population-based study objectives were to describe characteristics and outcomes of Escherichia coli bloodstream infections (BSIs), and to evaluate factors associated with outcomes. We included incident E. coli BSIs from western interior residents (British Columbia, Canada; 04/2010–03/2020). We obtained data including patient demographics, location of onset, infection focus, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), antimicrobial resistance, 30-day all-cause mortality and length of hospital stay (LOS). Using multivariable logistic regression models fitted with generalised estimating equations, we estimated factors associated with 30-day mortality and long post-infection LOS (>75th percentile). We identified 1080 incident E. coli BSIs in 1009 patients. The crude incidence and 30-day mortality rates were 59.1 BSIs and 6.8 deaths/100 000 person-years, respectively. The 30-day case fatality risk was 11.5%. Compared to community-acquired E. coli BSIs, either healthcare-associated or nosocomial cases had higher odds of 30-day mortality. Older cases, non-urogenital BSI foci and CCI ⩾ 3 had higher odds of 30-day mortality compared to younger cases, urogenital foci and CCI < 3. In patients that survived to discharge, those with extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing E. coli BSIs, nosocomial BSIs, and CCI ⩾ 3 had higher odds of long post-infection LOS compared to those with non-ESBL-producing, community-acquired and healthcare-associated, and CCI < 3. There is a substantial disease burden from E. coli BSIs.

This paper describes the epidemiology of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Northern Ireland (NI) between 26 February 2020 and 26 April 2020, and analyses enhanced surveillance and contact tracing data collected between 26 February 2020 and 13 March 2020 to estimate secondary attack rates (SAR) and relative risk of infection among different categories of contacts of individuals with laboratory confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Our results show that during the study period COVID-19 cumulative incidence and mortality was lower in NI than the rest of the UK. Incidence and mortality were also lower than in the Republic of Ireland (ROI), although these observed differences are difficult to interpret given considerable differences in testing and surveillance between the two nations. SAR among household contacts was 15.9% (95% CI 6.6%–30.1%), over 6 times higher than the SAR among ‘high-risk’ contacts at 2.5% (95% CI 0.9%–5.4%). The results from logistic regression analysis of testing data on contacts of laboratory-confirmed cases show that household contacts had 11.0 times higher odds (aOR: 11.0, 95% CI 1.7–70.03, P-value: 0.011) of testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 compared to other categories of contacts. These results demonstrate the importance of the household as a locus of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and the urgency of identifying effective interventions to reduce household transmission.

Computer models can be useful in planning interventions against novel strains of influenza. However such models sometimes make unsubstantiated assumptions about the relative infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, or conversely assume there is no impact at all. Using household-level data from known-index studies of virologically confirmed influenza A infection, the relationship between an individual's infectiousness and their symptoms was quantified using a discrete-generation transmission model and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. It was found that the presence of particular respiratory symptoms in an index case does not influence transmission probabilities, with the exception of child-to-child transmission where the donor has phlegm or a phlegmy cough.

The dose—response relationships between two strains of lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (WE3 and Armstrong) and two hosts (mice and L cell tube cultures) were determined. The statistical analysis showed that, if infection was regarded as the response, and in the case of Armstrong virus in mice also death, the shapes of the empirical dose—response curves did not deviate from expectation which was based on the zero term of the Poisson distribution. Hence, the hypothesis that individual infectious units are capable of initiating infection and that co-operation is not required, was not contradicted. Furthermore, the units of assay were found to be equally susceptible under the experimental conditions applied.

By way of contrast, the relationship between WE3 virus and mice dying after intracerebral inoculations was found to be more complex. In this case the empirical curve did not run the expected sigmoid course at all, but rather was bell-shaped with a maximum of mortality (92%) at approximately 50 ID 50.

The work was supported by a research grant from the Deutsche Forschungs-gemeinschaft.

The incidence of scarlet fever has increased dramatically in recent years in Chongqing, China, but there has no effective method to forecast it. This study aimed to develop a forecasting model of the incidence of scarlet fever using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Monthly scarlet fever data between 2011 and 2019 in Chongqing, China were retrieved from the Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System. From 2011 to 2019, a total of 5073 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, the male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1, children aged 3–9 years old accounted for 81.86% of the cases, while 42.70 and 42.58% of the reported cases were students and kindergarten children, respectively. The data from 2011 to 2018 were used to fit a SARIMA model and data in 2019 were used to validate the model. The normalised Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the coefficient of determination (R2) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the fitted model. The optimal SARIMA model was identified as (3, 1, 3) (3, 1, 0)12. The RMSE and mean absolute per cent error (MAPE) were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The RMSE and MAPE of the predicted values were 19.40 and 0.25 respectively, indicating that the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well. Taken together, the SARIMA model could be employed to forecast scarlet fever incidence trend, providing support for scarlet fever control and prevention.

Nocardial taxonomy, like that of other actinomyeete genera, has undergone all the viscissitudes of doubt associated with years of inadequate and sometimes inappropriate methodology. This is reflected by the great expansion of species names allocated to the genus over the first two thirds of this century (Buchanan, Holt & Lessel, 1966), followed by the contraction achieved in the list of approved bacterial names in 1980 (Skerman, McGowan & Sneath, 1980). Created by Trevisan in 1889 for five species, modern taxonomists would now allocate some 20 species to the genus, including only one of Trevisan's original five species (Table 1). As an actinomycetc genus Nocardia has suffered from two particular disadvantages. First in having an apparently distinctive nocardioform morphology on the basis of which organisms were referred to this genus long after crude morphology lost its importance in many other genera. Second in having an unfortunate type species, Nocardia farcinica, with no really well accredited type strain.

Since the publication of the Indian Plague Commission in 1901, with the exception of a short paper by Hankin (1905), comparatively little has been published in scientific journals dealing with the spread of plague in India from an epidemiological view-point. Not that this has been lost sight of in India, for there are many very valuable reports in existence in the archives of the various local Governments, containing most interesting observations made by officers of the Indian Medical Service who have dealt personally with the epidemics; but as these reports are, in the nature of things, not available for reference by the public, it has been thought advisable and useful to compile a digest of them for publication.

The number of tests performed is an important surveillance indicator. We illustrate this point using HIV surveillance data, focusing on Tokyo and Okinawa, two prefectures with high HIV notification rates in Japan. Restricting to data reported from local public health centres and affiliate centres where testing data are accessible, we assessed HIV surveillance data during 2007–2014, based on the annual HIV notification rate (per 100 000 population), HIV testing rate (per 100 000 population) and proportion testing HIV-positive (positivity). Nationally, testing activity and positivity showed an inverse relationship; in 2008, the testing rate peaked, but positivity was lowest. While notification rates were higher for Tokyo (median = 0.98, range = 0.89–1.33) than Okinawa (median = 0.61, range = 0.42–1.09), Okinawa had slightly higher testing rates (median = 187, range = 158–274) relative to Tokyo (median = 172, range = 163–210). Positivity was substantially lower in Okinawa (median = 0.34%, range = 0.24–0.45%) compared with Tokyo (median = 0.57%, range = 0.46–0.67%). Relative to the national testing rate (median = 85, range = 80–115) and positivity (median = 0.34%, range = 0.28–0.36%), Tokyo had higher positivity, despite more testing. In 2014 in Okinawa, all three indicators increased, providing a strong reason to be concerned as positivity increased despite more testing. Together with other information, accounting for testing and positivity improve interpretation of surveillance data to guide public health assessments.

Using the cross agglutinin absorption test 12 British leptospiral isolates of the Sejroe serogroup were identified to serovar level. Six strains isolated from cattle, two from pigs and one from a human were identified as Leptospira interrogans serovar hardjo. Two isolates from wildlife were identified as Leptospira interrogans serovar saxkoebing. One further strain isolated from wildlife closely resembled serovar saxkoebing, but specific identification was not possible. These are the first reported isolations of serovar saxkoebing in the United Kingdom. The problems associated with the cross agglutinin absorption test, and possible alternative typing procedures are discussed.

1. The genus Corynebacterium is common in the vagina. In direct smears forms with exaggerated curvature and staining Gram-negatively may easily be mistaken for vibrios.

2. Attention is drawn to the not infrequent presence of Gram-negative cocci in direct vaginal smears. From these cases Diplococcus crassus, a commensal member of the genus Neisseria, has been isolated. These cocci could be mistaken for gonococci.

3. An unusual organism seen in two direct smears from the vagina is described, and the suggestion is made that it may be Streptobacillus moniliformis.

The effect of oral administration of neomycin cephalothin or kanamycin cephalothin on the aerobic intestinal bacterial flora, was studied in dogs maintained under isolation conditions in a conventional animal room. The dogs were successfully freed of aerobic bacteria with both combinations within two to seven days after the start of antibiotic treatment, and were maintained bacteria free for up to 21 days. Decontamination was attained more rapidly in dogs that were bathed in hexachlorophene surgical soap before and during the first and third days of antibiotic treatment. There was no evidence of toxicity from either of the antibiotic combinations. These results indicate that, as with mice and monkeys, decontamination of dogs with oral antibiotics is feasible. The technique is of potential value in preventing endogenous bacterial infections in canine experimental studies involving use of immunosuppressive agents.

The annual incidence of listeriosis in Italy is lower (0·19–0·27 per 100 000 inhabitants per year) than in Europe (0·34–0·52 per 100 000 inhabitants per year). Since the observed incidence of listeriosis may be biased downward for underdiagnosis or under-reporting, this work aims to estimate the real incidence of listeriosis during a 9-year period in the Lombardy region, Italy. Data on listeriosis cases were collected from national mandatory notification system (MAINF) and Laboratory-based Surveillance System (LabSS). The two sources were cross-matched and capture–recapture method was applied to estimate the number of undetected cases and the real incidence of invasive listeriosis. Five hundred and eighty invasive listeriosis cases were detected by the two sources between 2006 and 2014: 50·2% were identified only via MAINF, 16·7% were recorded only via LabSS, overlaps occurred in 192 cases (33·1%). The mean annual incidence detected only by MAINF was 0·56 per 100 000 inhabitants, which rose to 0·67 per 100 000 considering also the cases detected by LabSS. The capture–recapture method allowed to estimate an incidence of 0·84 per 100 000. The high incidence of listeriosis may be due to improved sensitivity of the surveillance system, but also reflect a real increase, associated with an increased population at risk.

Based on 92537 blood samples received from 7365 patients with a request for a meningococcal antibody test (MAT) during a 10-year period (1986–1995), the usefulness of the test in the diagnosis of meningococcal disease was assessed. Of 635 patients with culture-confirmed meningococcal disease, 88% were seronegative on admittance to hospital and 90% were seropositive 10–15 days after onset of disease. The humoral immune response in children <2 years of age was weaker than in older children and adults. Among 893 MAT-positive patients without culture-confirmed meningococcal disease, 261 (29%) had been notified as cases of meningococcal disease. Among 228 patients notified as serologically confirmed the MAT results were consistent with the clinical diagnosis in 86%. MAT is a reliable tool for establishing a diagnosis in patients with suspected meningococcal disease. Key factors facilitating appropriate interpretation of negative as well as positive test results were: time(s) of sampling(s) after onset of disease, age of the patient and clinical features.

More people with hepatitis C virus pass through incarcerated settings each year than any other venue. The goal of this study was to assess inmates' attitudes towards hepatitis C testing and treatment while incarcerated. We interviewed 153 male and female inmates at the Rhode Island Department of Corrections (RIDOC). Ninety-one per cent of inmates said they would agree to be tested for hepatitis C and 95% said that they would be willing to be treated for hepatitis C while incarcerated. Thirty-three per cent perceived themselves to be at risk for hepatitis C. Inmates were very interested in hepatitis C testing and, if indicated treatment. Inmates' attitudes towards hepatitis C testing and treatment do not pose a major obstacle to implementing comprehensive hepatitis C screening and treatment programme in correctional settings.

Accurate data on the incidence of West Nile virus (WNV) disease are important for directing public health education and control activities. The objective of this project was to assess the underdiagnosis of WNV neuroinvasive disease through laboratory testing of patients with suspected viral meningitis or encephalitis at selected hospitals serving WNV-endemic regions in three states. Of the 279 patients with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) specimens tested for WNV immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies, 258 (92%) were negative, 19 (7%) were positive, and two (1%) had equivocal results. Overall, 63% (12/19) of patients with WNV IgM-positive CSF had WNV IgM testing ordered by their attending physician. Seven (37%) cases would not have been identified as probable WNV infections without the further testing conducted through this project. These findings indicate that over a third of WNV infections in patients with clinically compatible neurological illness might be undiagnosed due to either lack of testing or inappropriate testing, leading to substantial underestimates of WNV neuroinvasive disease burden. Efforts should be made to educate healthcare providers and laboratorians about the local epidemiology of arboviral diseases and the optimal tests to be used in different clinical situations.

The ability of six different types of contamination control mats currently in use at the entrances to theatre suites and other clean areas to remove bacteria-carrying particles from theatre trolley wheels was compared. Marked differences in the effectiveness of this property were obtained; and all mats showed some disadvantages. Modification of one of the mats has resulted in improved efficiency under working conditions.