Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-g8jcs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-30T19:42:43.008Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Using population dynamics modelling to evaluate potential success of restoration: a case study of a Hawaiian vine in a changing climate

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 June 2014

TAMARA M. WONG  and
TAMARA TICKTIN
TAMARA M. WONG*
Affiliation:
Department of Botany and Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Biology Program, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, 3190 Maile Way, St. John 101, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
TAMARA TICKTIN
Affiliation:
Department of Botany and Ecology, Evolution and Conservation Biology Program, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, 3190 Maile Way, St. John 101, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
*
*Correspondence: Dr Tamara Wong e-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Summary

Demographic comparisons between wild and restored populations of at-risk plant species can reveal key management strategies for effective conservation, but few such studies exist. This paper evaluates the potential restoration success of Alyxia stellata, a Hawaiian vine. Stage-structured matrix projection models that compared long-term and transient dynamics of wild versus restored A. stellata populations, and restored populations under different levels of canopy cover, were built from demographic data collected over a four year period. Stochastic models of wild populations projected stable or slightly declining long-term growth rates depending on frequency of dry years. Projected long-term population growth rates of restored populations were significantly higher in closed than open canopy conditions, but indicated population decline under both conditions. Life table response experiments illustrated that lower survival rates, especially of small adults and juveniles, contributed to diminished population growth rates in restored populations. Transient analyses for restored populations projected short-term decline occurring even faster than predicted by asymptotic dynamics. Restored populations will not be viable over the long term under conditions commonly found in restoration projects and interventions will likely be necessary. This study illustrates how the combination of long-term population modelling and transient analyses can be effective in providing relevant information for plant demographers and restoration practitioners to promote self-sustaining native populations, including under future climates.

Keywords

demographyelasticity analysislianalife table response experimentsmatrix projection modelsnon-timber forest productstransient analyses
Type
Papers
Information
Environmental Conservation , Volume 42 , Issue 1 , March 2015 , pp. 20 - 30
Copyright
Copyright © Foundation for Environmental Conservation 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abbott, I. A. (1992) La‘au Hawai‘i, traditional Hawaiian uses of plants. Honolulu, Hawai‘i, USA: Bishop Museum Press.Google Scholar
Bell, T., Bowles, M.L. & McEachern, A.K. (2003) Projecting the success of plant population restoration with viability analysis. In: Population Viability in Plants: Conservation, Management, and Modeling of Rare Plants, ed. Brigham, C.A. & Schwartz, M.W., pp. 313–348. Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.Google Scholar
Carlos Lola da Costa, A., Galbraith, D., Almeida, S., Takeshi, B., Portela, T., da Costa, M., de Athaydes Silva Junior, J., Braga, A.P., de Gonçalves, P.H.L., de Oliveira, A.A., Fisher, R., Phillips, O.L., Metcalfe, D.B., Levy, P. & Meir, P. (2010) Effect of 7 yr of experimental drought on vegetation dynamics and biomass storage of an eastern Amazonian rainforest. New Phytologist 187: 579–591.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caswell, H. (2001) Matrix Population Models. Sunderland, MA, USA: Sinauer.Google Scholar
Caswell, H. (2007) Sensitivity analysis of transient population dynamics. Ecology Letters 10: 1–15.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chu, P.-S. (1995) Hawaii rainfall anomalies and El Niño. Journal of Climate 8: 1697–1703.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chu, P.-S., Chen, Y.R. & Schroeder, T.A. (2010) Changes in precipitation extremes in the Hawaiian Islands in a warming climate. Journal of Climate 23 (18): 4881–4900.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Colas, B., Kirchner, F., Riba, M., Olivieri, I., Mignot, A., Imbert, E., Beltrame, C., Carbonell, D. & Fréville, H. (2008) Restoration demography: a 10-year demographic comparison between introduced and natural populations of endemic Centaurea corymbosa (Asteraceae). Journal of Applied Ecology 45: 1468–1476.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Condit, R., Hubbell, S.P. & Foster, R.B. (1995) Mortality-rates of 205 neotropical tree and shrub species and the impact of a severe drought. Ecological Monographs 65: 419–439.Google Scholar
Crone, E., Menges, E., Ellis, M., Bell, T., Bierzychudek, P., Ehrlén, J., Kaye, T., Knight, T., Lesica, P., Morris, W., Oostermeijer, G., Quintana-Ascencio, P., Stanley, A., Ticktin, T., Valverde, T. & Williams, J. (2011) How do plant ecologists use matrix population models? Ecology Letters 14: 1–8.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Crone, E.E., Ellis, M.M., Morris, W.F., Stanley, A., Bell, T., Bierzychudek, P., Ehrlén, J., Kaye, T.N., Knight, T.M., Lesica, P., Oostermeijer, G., Quintana-Ascencio, P.F., Ticktin, T., Valverde, T., Williams, J.L., Doak, D.F., Ganesan, R., McEachern, K., Thorpe, A.S. & Menges, E.S. (2013) Ability of matrix models to explain the past and predict the future of plant populations. Conservation Biology 27 (5): 968–978.Google Scholar
Drake, D.R., Motley, T.J., Whistler, W.A. & Imada, C.T. (1996) Rain forest vegetation of ‘Eua Island, Kingdom of Tonga. New Zealand Journal of Botany 34 (1): 65–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Endels, P., Jacquemyn, H., Brys, R. & Hermy, M. (2005) Rapid response to habitat restoration by the perennial Primula veris as revealed by demographic monitoring. Plant Ecology 176: 143–156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Escalante, S., Montaña, C. & Orellana, R. (2004) Demography and potential extractive use of the liana palm, Desmoncus orthacanthos Martius (Arecaceae), in southern Quintana Roo, Mexico. Forest Ecology and Management 187: 3–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garibaldi, A. & Turner, N. (2004) Cultural keystone species: implications for ecological conservation and restoration. Ecology and Society 9 (3): 1 [www document]. URL http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol9/iss3/art1/ Google Scholar
Goldman, R.L., Pejchar Goldstein, L. & Daily, G.C. (2008) Assessing the conservation value of a human-dominated island landscape: plant diversity in Hawaii. Biodiversity and Conservation 17: 1765–1781.Google Scholar
Guerrant, E.O.J. & Fiedler, P.L. (2003) Accounting for sample decline during ex situ storage and reintroduction. In: Ex Situ Plant Conservation: Supporting Species Survival in the Wild, ed. Guerrant, E.O.J., Havens, K. & Maunder, M., pp. 365–386. Washington, DC, USA: Island Press.Google Scholar
Kouassi, K.I., Barot, S., Gignoux, J. & Zoro Bi, I.A. (2008) Demography and life history of two rattan species, Eremospatha macrocarpa and Laccosperma secundiflorum, in Côte d’Ivoire. Journal of Tropical Ecology 24: 493–503.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lande, R. (1988) Genetics and demography in biological conservation. Science 241: 1455–1460.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Leighton, M. & Wirawan, N. (1984) Catastrophic drought and fire in Borneo tropical rain forest associated with 1982–1983 El Niño southern oscillation event. In: Tropical Rain Forest and World Atmosphere, ed. Prance, G.T., pp. ?–?. New York, NY, USA: American Association for the Advancement of Science.Google Scholar
Maschinski, J. & Duquesnel, J. (2007) Successful reintroductions of the endangered long-lived Sargent's cherry palm, Pseudophoenix sargentii, in the Florida Keys. Biological Conservation 134: 122–129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDaniel, S. & Ostertag, R. (2010) Strategic light manipulation as a restoration strategy to reduce alien grasses and encourage native regeneration in Hawaiian mesic forests. Applied Vegetation Science 13: 280–290.Google Scholar
McKay, J.K., Christian, C.E., Harrison, S. & Rice, K.J. (2005) ‘How local is local?’: a review of practical and conceptual issues in the genetics of restoration Restoration Ecology 13 (3): 432–440.Google Scholar
Menges, E.S. (1991) The application of minimum viable population theory to plants. In: Genetics and Conservation of Rare Plants, ed. Falk, D.A. & Holsinger, K.E., pp. 45–61. New York, NY, USA: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Menges, E.S. (1998) Evaluating extinction risks in plant populations. In: Conservation Biology for the Coming Decade, 2nd edition, ed. Fiedler, P.L. & Kareiva, P.M., pp. 49–65. New York, NY, USA: Chapman and Hall.Google Scholar
Middleton, D.J. (2002) Revision of Alyxia (Apocynaceae). Part 2: Pacific islands and Australasia. Blumea 47: 1–93.Google Scholar
Morris, W. F. & Doak, D. F. (2002) Quantitative Conservation Biology: Theory and Practice of Population Viability Analysis. Sunderland, MA, USA: Sinauer Associates.Google Scholar
Mueller-Dombois, D. (2005) A silvicultural approach to restoration of native Hawaiian rainforests. Lyonia 8 (1): 61–65.Google Scholar
Nabe-Nielsen, J. (2004) Demography of Machaerium cuspidatum, a shade-tolerant neotropical liana. Journal of Tropical Ecology 20: 505–516.Google Scholar
Nepstad, D.C., Tohver, I.M., Ray, D., Moutinho, P. & Cardinot, G. (2007) Mortality of large trees and lianas following experimental drought in an Amazon forest. Ecology 88 (9): 2259–2269.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peters, J., ed. (2000) Tetrazolium Testing Handbook. Contribution no. 29 to The Handbook on Seed Testing. Lincoln, NE, USA: Association of Official Seed Analysts.Google Scholar
R Development Core Team (2008) R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria [www document]. URL http://www.R-project.org Google Scholar
Savage, M. (1992) Germination of forest species under an anthropogenic vine mosaic in Western Samoa. Biotropica 24 (3): 460–462.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schnitzer, S.A. & Bongers, F. (2002) The ecology of lianas and their role in forests. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 17 (5): 223–230.Google Scholar
Shiels, A.B. & Drake, D.R. (2011) Are introduced rats (Rattus rattus) both seed predators and dispersers in Hawaii? Biological Invasions 13: 883–894.Google Scholar
Siebert, S.F. (2004) Demographic effects of collecting rattan cane and their implications for sustainable harvesting. Conservation Biology 18 (2): 424–431.Google Scholar
Stott, I., Hodgson, D. & Townley, S. (2012) Popdemo: provides tools for demographic modelling using projection matrices. R package version 0.1–3 [www document]. http://CRAN.R-project.org/package=popdemo Google Scholar
Stott, I., Townley, S. & Hodgson, D.J. (2011) A framework for studying transient dynamics of population projection matrix models. Ecology Letters 14: 959–970.Google Scholar
Stubben, C.J. & Milligan, B.G. (2007) Estimating and analyzing demographic models using the popbio package in R. Journal of Statistical Software 22: 11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Thaxton, J.M., Cordell, S., Cabin, R.J. & Sandquist, D.R. (2012) Non-native grass removal and shade increase soil moisture and seedling performance during Hawaiian dry forest restoration. Restoration Ecology 20: 475–482.Google Scholar
Ticktin, T. (2004) The ecological implications of harvesting non-timber forest products. Journal of Applied Ecology 41 (1): 11–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timm, O. & Diaz, H.F. (2009) Synoptic-statistical approach to regional downscaling of IPCC twenty-first-century climate projections: seasonal rainfall over the Hawaiian Islands. Journal of Climate 22 (16): 4261–4280.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
US Fish and Wildlife Service (2013) US Fish and Wildlife Service Species List [www document]. URL http://www.fws.gov/endangered Google Scholar
Wagner, W.L., Herbst, D.R. & Sohmer, S.H. (1990) Manual of the Flowering Plants of Hawaii. Honolulu, Hawaii, USA: University of Hawaii Press/Bishop Museum Press.Google Scholar
Wang, C., Deser, C., Yu, J.-Y., DiNezio, P. & Clement, A. (2012) El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO): a review. In: Coral Reefs of the Eastern Pacific, ed. Glymn, P., Manzello, D. & Enochs, I., pp. ?–?. Where published?: Springer Science Publisher.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: Image

Wong and Ticktin Supplementary Material

Figure S1

Download Wong and Ticktin Supplementary Material(Image)
Image 193.2 KB
Supplementary material: Image

Wong and Ticktin Supplementary Material

Figure S2

Download Wong and Ticktin Supplementary Material(Image)
Image 116.7 KB
Supplementary material: File

Wong and Ticktin Supplementary Material

Appendix

Download Wong and Ticktin Supplementary Material(File)
File 326.9 KB