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The Future Population of Canada, Its Age Distribution and Dependency Relations*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 November 2010

Frank T. Denton ,
Christine H. Feaver  and
Byron G. Spencer
Frank T. Denton
Affiliation:
McMaster University
Christine H. Feaver
Affiliation:
McMaster University
Byron G. Spencer
Affiliation:
McMaster University
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Abstract

Population aging has become a subject of widespread popular and academic interest. In providing an assessment of the extent of aging that is in prospect, this paper makes available a number of projections of the age-sex distribution of the Canadian population for the 45-year period 1996 to 2041 and comparisons with the previous 45-year period. The projections combine assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and migration so as to produce future populations characterized as “medium,” “old,” “young,” “high immigration” and “low immigration”. Supplementary calculations include growth rates, for both the total population and selected age groups, and various types of dependency ratios, including ones with a range of age-differentiated weights. It is concluded that substantial aging of the Canadian population appears virtually certain but, based on the demographic evidence, the “dependency burden” is likely to remain below the peak levels attained during the baby boom.

Résumé

Le vieillissement de la population est devenu un sujet d'actualité répandu, tant en milieu universitaire qu'au sein de la population en général. Dans son évaluation de la portée du vieillissement prévue, ce document fournit un ensemble de projections de la répartition par âge/sexe de la population canadienne sur une période de 45 ans se situant entre 1996 et 2041 et présente des comparaisons avec la période de 45 ans qui précède. À partir d'hypothèses concernant la fertilité, la mortalité et la migration, on propose différents scénarios selon le type de populations «moyenne,» «vieille,» «jeune,» à «forte immigration» et «à faible immigration». D'autres calculs tiennent compte des taux de croissance, tant de la population en général que de certains groupes d'âge ainsi que de divers types de ratios de dépendance, certains pondérés en fonction de l'âge. En conclusion, le vieillissement substantiel de la population canadienne semble évident mais, selon les données démographiques, le «fardeau de la dépendance» demeurera vraisemblablement sous les niveaux records atteints lors du baby boom.

Keywords

Future PopulationCanadaAge DistributionDependency Relations.Population futureCanadarépartition par âgerelations de dépendance.
Type
Articles
Information
Canadian Journal on Aging / La Revue canadienne du vieillissement , Volume 17 , Issue 1 , Printemps/Spring 1998 , pp. 83 - 109
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Association on Gerontology 1998

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Footnotes

1

Director, QSEP Research Institute, and Professor of Economics, McMaster University, Kenneth Taylor Hall, Room 426, Hamilton, ON, L8S 4M4

*

We thank the Editor-in-Chief, Anne Martin-Matthews, and three anonymous referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. The work reported in this paper was supported by Health Canada's Seniors' Independence Research Program.

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