Introduction: Stalemate along the Taiwan Straits, 1949–2020

Summary

Following the Nationalist defeat on the mainland in 1949, Chiang Kai-shek and his followers retreated to Taiwan, reforming the Republic of China (ROC). To many it seemed almost certain that the People's Republic of China (PRC) would attack and take Taiwan, perhaps as early as summer 1950. Control over a number of offshore islands, especially Quemoy (Jinmen) and Matsu (Mazu), became a deciding factor in whether the PRC could invade Taiwan or, conversely, the ROC could invade the mainland. Twice in the 1950s tensions peaked, during the first (1954–55) and second (1958) Taiwan Strait crises. During both events the US government intervened both diplomatically and militarily.

This work provides a short, but highly relevant, history of the Taiwan Strait and its significance today. This small body of water—often compared to the English Channel—separates the PRC and Taiwan and has been the location for periodic military tensions, some threatening to end in war. During the 1950s, the two outbreaks appeared like they might result in a global war. During the evacuation of the Dachen Islands, for example, the US Navy sent seven aircraft carriers and was authorized to nuke three Chinese coastal cities if the PLA tried to interfere.

In the modern era, the Taiwan Strait separates the democratic Taiwan from the authoritarian PRC. This study will discuss the origins of these conflicts, the military aspects of the confrontations, and in particular the complicated and largely secret diplomatic negotiations—including two previously unknown Eisenhower–Chiang secret agreements—going on behind the scenes between the US government and the Nationalist government in Taiwan. This book will end with a short discussion of the ongoing COVID crisis and how the PRC might take advantage of this crisis to extend its political, and eventually military, control over Taiwan.