Book contents
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Introduction
- Ragnar Nurkse: Trade and Development
- 1 Causes and Effects of Capital Movements (1934)
- 2 The Schematic Representation of the Structure of Production (1935)
- 3 Conditions of International Monetary Equilibrium (1945)
- 4 Domestic and International Equilibrium (1947)
- 5 International Monetary Policy and the Search for Economic Stability (1947)
- 6 Growth in Underdeveloped Countries (1952)
- 7 Problems of Capital Formation in Underdeveloped Countries (1953)
- 8 Period Analysis and Inventory Cycles (1954)
- 9 A New Look at the Dollar Problem and the United States Balance of Payments (1954)
- 10 International Investment To-day in the Light of Nineteenth-Century Experience (1954)
- 11 The Relation between Home Investment and External Balance in the Light of British Experience, 1945–1955 (1956)
- 12 Reflections on India's Development Plan (1957)
- 13 Balanced and Unbalanced Growth (1957)
- 14 International Trade Theory and Development Policy (1957)
- 15 Trade Fluctuations and Buffer Policies of Low-income Countries (1958)
- 16 Patterns of Trade and Development (1959)
- Notes
- Bibliography
15 - Trade Fluctuations and Buffer Policies of Low-income Countries (1958)
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 05 March 2012
- Frontmatter
- Contents
- Preface
- Introduction
- Ragnar Nurkse: Trade and Development
- 1 Causes and Effects of Capital Movements (1934)
- 2 The Schematic Representation of the Structure of Production (1935)
- 3 Conditions of International Monetary Equilibrium (1945)
- 4 Domestic and International Equilibrium (1947)
- 5 International Monetary Policy and the Search for Economic Stability (1947)
- 6 Growth in Underdeveloped Countries (1952)
- 7 Problems of Capital Formation in Underdeveloped Countries (1953)
- 8 Period Analysis and Inventory Cycles (1954)
- 9 A New Look at the Dollar Problem and the United States Balance of Payments (1954)
- 10 International Investment To-day in the Light of Nineteenth-Century Experience (1954)
- 11 The Relation between Home Investment and External Balance in the Light of British Experience, 1945–1955 (1956)
- 12 Reflections on India's Development Plan (1957)
- 13 Balanced and Unbalanced Growth (1957)
- 14 International Trade Theory and Development Policy (1957)
- 15 Trade Fluctuations and Buffer Policies of Low-income Countries (1958)
- 16 Patterns of Trade and Development (1959)
- Notes
- Bibliography
Summary
Instability of Export Earnings: Causes and Effects
Agricultural production suffers from a good deal of natural instability due to weather, pests and plant diseases. As if this were not enough to relieve the monotony of rural life, the notorious cyclical variations in export proceeds are superimposed on the random changes in output. If movements on the supply side were the dominant factor in the export trade of primary producing countries, then export prices and quantities would tend to fluctuate inversely. Actually, prices and quantities accentuate—instead of mutually offsetting—each other in their effect on the export proceeds of primary producing countries. This fact is brought out clearly in a recent United Nations study. Based on the experience of the first half of the present century (1901–1951), this study finds that, on the whole, price and quantity changes contribute about equally to the cyclical ups and downs in export proceeds realised for the leading primary commodities that enter into international trade. Indeed, the cyclical variability of export quantities is, rather surprisingly, somewhat greater than that of export prices: the average fluctuation per annum turns out to be 17 % for the quantities and 14% for the prices of the 18 major products.
The parallel movement of export prices and export quantities reflects unmistakably the dominant role of demand conditions. It furnishes conclusive proof—if proof were needed—that the export fluctuations of primary producing countries originate in the world's industrial centers.
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- Ragnar NurkseTrade and Development, pp. 385 - 396Publisher: Anthem PressPrint publication year: 2009