3 - Why Does the Abe Government’s Approval Rating Always Recover?

Summary

One of the most noteworthy facts about the government of Shinzo Abe is that, although his cabinet approval rating often dropped dramatically following controversial political decisions, it typically bounced back. In this chapter, I analyze Abe’s resurgent popularity based on a survey experiment which I conducted in late 2015 soon after the passage of national security legislation had caused the public support for his government to sink at its lowest level. The experiment successfully recaptured the occurrence of drops in the support for Abe government when respondents were primed informationally about the national security bill just passed. Further, cross-sectional analyses reveal that the drops occurred not amongst liberal/leftist respondents but rather among conservative respondents reacting perhaps to Abe’s overly aggressive manner in the legislative process. Precisely because their policy positions were closest to Abe himself, their withholding of support would not last long, thus elucidating the reason for Abe’s resurgent popularity.