Book contents
- Philosophy and Climate Science
- Philosophy and Climate Science
- Copyright page
- Epigraph
- Contents
- Figures
- Boxes
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Data
- 3 Models
- 4 Simulations
- 5 Chaos
- 6 Probability
- 7 Confidence
- 8 Decision
- 9 Values
- 10 Skill
- 11 Robustness
- 12 Diversity
- 13 Social Epistemology
- 14 Epilogue
- Appendix: Structural Stability and the “Hawkmoth Effect”*
- References
- Index
- References
6 - Probability
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 19 April 2018
Book contents
- Philosophy and Climate Science
- Philosophy and Climate Science
- Copyright page
- Epigraph
- Contents
- Figures
- Boxes
- Tables
- Preface
- 1 Introduction
- 2 Data
- 3 Models
- 4 Simulations
- 5 Chaos
- 6 Probability
- 7 Confidence
- 8 Decision
- 9 Values
- 10 Skill
- 11 Robustness
- 12 Diversity
- 13 Social Epistemology
- 14 Epilogue
- Appendix: Structural Stability and the “Hawkmoth Effect”*
- References
- Index
- References
Summary
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- Information
- Philosophy and Climate Science , pp. 75 - 89Publisher: Cambridge University PressPrint publication year: 2018
References
Suggestions for Further Reading
IPCC, AR4, WG1, 1.6. The canonical statement of what uncertainty terms mean in all IPCC reports. This is still more or less the standard, though small modifications were made in the next entry:Google Scholar
Mastrandrea, Michael et al. 2010. “Guidance Note for Lead Authors of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Consistent Treatment of Uncertainties.” A new document for the AR5 on the treatment of uncertainties, which also includes a treatment of levels of “confidence,” which we will discuss in more detail in Chapter 7.Google Scholar
Hájek, Alan. 2003. “Interpretations of Probability,” The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. An excellent appraisal of a century’s work on the interpretation of probability by one of its most prolific recent contributors. Contains an extensive bibliography.Google Scholar
Hoefer, Carl. 2007. “The Third Way on Objective Probability: A Sceptic’s Guide to Objective Chance,” Mind. A compelling defense of the claim that there can exist objective chances in a deterministic world.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rougier, Jonathon and Crucifix, Michael. 2018. “Uncertainty in Climate Science and Climate Policy.” An excellent discussion of subjective probability in climate science and some of the difficulties associated with assigning them, written by a statistician and a climate scientist writing (in part) for a philosophical audience.CrossRefGoogle Scholar