8 - Findings Inescapable Entrapments: Informal Action Channels, and Path-Dependent Reasoning

Summary

Introduction

The occasion for decision is metaphorically described by Hermann as a single frame of film in a motion picture. The single frame is the foundation from which a continuous strip of film is produced. Just like frames in a movie, the snapshots of the decision-making process at various points in time form an episode of a particular crisis.

To take this metaphor further, an exciting but confusing film is taking shape. The director (politicians) and his cast (senior civil and military decision-makers) developed this movie in a way that did not follow their traditional textbooks (strategic studies and civil-military theory). Some actors (senior military decision-makers) had already created a script in which their ideas featured prominently. Once they informed the lead actors (senior civil decision-makers) about the script, they all joined hands and further developed the plot. Every now and then they would quarrel about its direction. Yet, they were united in their belief that the movie needed to be a success because the investors (the international partners/NATO) had already invested a lot of money and the credibility (making up for Iraq and Srebrenica) of the director and his cast was at stake. Unfortunately, the audience (the constituents) was confused because there were different film trailers. Some expected a violent movie (fighting mission), whereas others expected a feelgood movie (reconstruction mission). As a result, the film was not become the success as had been envisioned. In order to prevent a future fiasco, a research agency (the author) reconstructed the writing of the script of the film (the sequential decision path) and advised the director, his cast and the writers of the film script on possible adjustments.

This chapter presents prominent findings that clarify why the senior civil and military decision-makers in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom decided to provide military means for the stabilisation of southern Afghanistan and how this decision was converted into a military operation.

Why and How: Inescapable Entrapments?

In order to understand why the United Kingdom and the Netherlands committed their military forces to the stabilisation of Afghanistan, the opportunity for a decision on the matter was scrutinised. The pressing nature of the decision in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom featured prominently in both cases.