This paper shows empirical evidence and theory consistent with the US government using debt optimally to adjust the federal budget to news about long-term growth. First, using historical forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) since 1984, I find that government purchases and deficits are positively correlated with expectations about long-term productivity, real gross domestic product, and tax revenue growth, whereas tax receipts are negatively correlated. A structural vector autoregression estimated with US quarterly data in 1955–2015 identifies permanent and transitory productivity shocks and points to “trend” shocks as the source of these correlations. Second, I present an open economy real business-cycle model with stochastic productivity trend and optimal public purchases and taxes. Calibrating the model to the US economy, the Ramsey planners' allocation yields moments aligned with those observed in the data.

The main goal of the Norwegian pension reform of 2011 is to improve long run fiscal sustainability, not least through stronger labour supply incentives. We assess to what extent the reform is likely to live up to these intentions. To this end we combine a dynamic microsimulation model, which includes a complete description of the Norwegian population and the pension system, with CGE-modelling of the effects on all government revenues and expenditures. We find that the reform is likely to make a great fiscal impact in the long run, and higher employment plays an important role in this respect.

Forecast errors in budgetary variables are frequent. When systematic, they are a source of concern, as they signal misconduct in fiscal policymaking, undermine the government’s credibility and compromise long-term fiscal sustainability. This paper analyses the characteristics of fiscal forecasting and implementation errors in Italy using real-time data over the period 1998–2009. Several empirical methods are applied in order to identify the features of policymakers’ behaviour in preparing and implementing annual fiscal policy and to discover potential determinants in the formation of the implementation errors. Our results show that implemented budgetary plans systematically fall short one year ahead of ambitious planned adjustments for the main public finance aggregates. Fiscal illusion dominates revenue and GDP forecasting, and preliminary data releases are severely biased estimators of the final data, especially for expenditures. The role of the parliamentary session in driving a severe expenditure drift is confirmed.

The paper provides a framework for the conceptualization, definition and measurement of the legacy costs that needs to be addressed in a reform that transforms an unfunded (or non-financial) defined benefit (NDB) scheme into an equally unfunded notional (or non-financial) defined contribution (NDC) scheme. During a transition from NDB to NDC a financing gap typically arises due to accrued to date liabilities from the old system in excess of the NDC scheme's sustainable flow of benefits. This gap – or legacy cost – needs to be estimated and best explicitly financed. We illustrate different techniques to gauge the scope of the cost. The paper applies the proposed approach to a hypothetical NDC reform in China.

This paper estimates the fiscal burden of the Pay-As-You-Go (PAYGO) civil service pension systems that were closed in 2008 to new members in North Cyprus. Estimates are made of the difference between the present values of future contributions and the future pension benefits. The future pension benefits are those received by the individuals covered through these plans for the period from 2009 to the death of the last member in the system. The estimated unfunded cost of these historical civil service pension plans is 7.3 billion euros or 276% of GDP.

This paper considers the origins and characteristics of the current economic crisis in Ireland. In particular, it examines how fiscal policy contributed to the crisis rather than preventing it. The paper gives details of the major fiscal tightening that is under way. By 2014 the authorities will have implemented a package of ex ante cuts equivalent to one-fifth of GDP. The costs of this package, together with the more permanent effects of the recession on potential output, are discussed and the legacy effects of the crisis for government indebtedness are analysed.