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Ecological momentary assessment (EMA) allows for tracking participant responses across multiple timepoints within the context of typical daily experiences. This study used EMA delivered via smartwatches to investigate dynamic associations between older adults’ fluctuations in cognitive performance as measured by an n-back test and self-reports of current internal (i.e., mental sharpness, fatigue, stress) and external (i.e., environmental distractions, time of day) contextual states over seven days. We hypothesized that 1) cognitive test fluctuations throughout the week would be meaningful beyond average cognitive test scores and 2) cognitive test scores would fluctuate in response to internal and external contexts.
Participants and Methods:
Participants were 28 community-dwelling older adults recruited for a larger clinical trial assessing the influence of lifestyle factors and compensatory strategy use on cognitive health. During week one of the trial, participants received a smartwatch which sent prompts four times a day for seven consecutive days. The prompts included a 45-second one-back shape test, along with Likert-style questions about their current experience. Questions assessing participants’ internal contexts asked about participants’ experience “right now” of mental sharpness, physical fatigue, and stress. External context was assessed via the EMA prompt, “Right now my environment is distracting,” and time of day of the response.
Results:
Data was screened such that all data points outside the 7-day prompt window were removed, one participant who did not respond to any prompts was removed, and participants who responded to less than 60% of the shape test prompts were removed (n = 10). The sample used for this preliminary analysis included 17 participants (Age, M = 71.94 years; Education, M = 14 years; 88% Female; 88% White) with an average compliance of 75% (Range = 17 - 26 shape test responses) and an average shape test accuracy of > 92%. Hypothesis 1 was supported by the large fluctuations of the average cognitive test scores across timepoints (M = 24.35, Min = 16, Max = 27, SD = 2.54) and by repeated-measures ANOVA of average cognitive test scores by day (F(1,7) = 5.24, p < 0.01). Hypothesis 2: Cross-correlation lags 0 to 4 were assessed. For internal contexts, cross-correlation showed a medium correlation between mental sharpness and cognition for lags 0 (r = 0.46) and 1 (r = 0.4); a small to medium correlation between physical fatigue and cognition for lags 0 (r = -0.51) and 1 (r = -0.31); and no correlation between stress and cognition (r < 0.2). For external contexts, cross-correlation revealed no correlation between environmental distraction and cognition (r < 0.3), and repeated measures ANOVA revealed no effect of time of day on cognition scores (p > 0.05).
Conclusions:
Older adults’ cognitive performance on an n-back shape test varied over time with internal contextual states. Cognitive performance was positively associated with feelings of mental sharpness and negatively associated with physical fatigue. Current external environmental distractions and time of day were less influential on cognitive performance. As more data is collected, influences of individual fluctuations in cognitive performance will be investigated.
While loss of insight into one’s cognitive impairment (anosognosia) is a feature in Alzheimer’s disease dementia, less is known about memory self-awareness in cognitively unimpaired (CU) older adults or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or factors that may impact self-awareness. Locus of control, specifically external locus of control, has been linked to worse cognitive/health outcomes, though little work has examined locus of control as it relates to self-awareness of memory functioning or across cognitive impairment status. Therefore, we examined associations between locus of control and memory self-awareness and whether MCI status impacted these associations.
Participants and Methods:
Participants from the Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly (ACTIVE) study (mean age=73.51; 76% women; 26% Black/African American) were classified as CU (n=2177) or MCI (amnestic n=313; non-amnestic n=170) using Neuropsychological Criteria. A memory composite score measured objective memory performance and the Memory Functioning Questionnaire measured subjective memory. Memory self-awareness was defined as objective memory minus subjective memory, with positive values indicating overreporting of memory difficulties relative to actual performance (hypernosognosia) and negative values indicating underreporting (hyponosognosia). Internal (i.e., personal skills/attributes dictate life events) and external (i.e., environment/others dictate life events) locus of control scores came from the Personality in Intellectual Aging Contexts Inventory. General linear models, adjusting for age, education, sex/gender, depressive symptoms, general health, and vocabulary examined the effects of internal and external locus of control on memory self-awareness and whether MCI status moderated these associations.
Results:
Amnestic and non-amnestic MCI participants reported lower internal and higher external locus of control than CU participants. There was a main effect of MCI status on memory self-awareness such that amnestic MCI participants showed the greatest degree of hyponosognosia/underreporting, followed by non-amnestic MCI, and CU participants slightly overreported their memory difficulties. While, on average, participants were fairly accurate at reporting their degree of memory difficulty, internal locus of control was negatively associated with self-awareness such that higher internal locus of control was associated with greater underreporting (ß=-.127, 95% CI [-.164, -.089], p<.001). MCI status did not moderate this association. External locus of control was positively associated with self-awareness such that higher external locus of control was associated with greater hypernosonosia/overreporting (ß=.259, 95% CI [.218, .300], p<.001). Relative to CU, amnestic, but not non-amnestic, MCI showed a stronger association between external locus of control and memory self-awareness. Specifically, higher external locus of control was associated with less underreporting of cognitive difficulties in amnestic MCI (ß=.107, 95% CI [.006, .208], p=.038).
Conclusions:
In CU participants, higher external locus of control was associated with greater hypernosognosia/overreporting. In amnestic MCI, the lower external locus of control associations with greater underreporting of objective cognitive difficulties suggests that perhaps reduced insight in some people with MCI may result in not realizing the need for external supports, and therefore not asking for help from others. Alternatively, in amnestic participants with greater external locus of control, perhaps the environmental cues/feedback translate to greater accuracy in their memory self-perceptions. Longitudinal analyses are needed to determine how memory self-awareness is related to future cognitive declines.
Background: Our aim was to develop a National Quality Indicators Set for the Care of Adults Hospitalized for Neurological Problems, to serve as a foundation to build regional or national quality initiatives in Canadian neurology centres. Methods: We used a national eDelphi process to develop a suite of quality indicators and a parallel process of surveys and patient focus groups to identify patient priorities. Canadian content and methodology experts were invited to participate. To be included, >70% of participants had to rate items as critical and <15% had to rate it as not important. Two rounds of surveys and consensus meetings were used identify and rank indicators, followed by national consultation with members of the Canadian Neurological Society. Results: 38 neurologists and methodologists and 56 patients/caregivers participated in this project. An initial list of 91 possible quality indicators was narrowed to 40 indicators across multiple categories of neurological conditions. 21 patient priorities were identified. Conclusions: This quality indicators suite can be used regionally or nationally to drive improvement initiatives for inpatient neurology care. In addition, we identified multiple opportunities for further research where evidence was lacking or patient and provider priorities did not align.
Two experiments were conducted to determine whether maximum eye temperature, measured using infrared thermography (IRT), could be a non-invasive technique for detecting responses of cattle to handling procedures. Experiment one used six crossbred heifers randomly assigned to two groups in a crossover design and subjected to i) being hit with a plastic tube on the rump and ii) being startled by the sudden waving of a plastic bag. Experiment two used 32 crossbred bulls randomly assigned to three treatments: i) control, restraint only; ii) electric prod, two brief applications of an electric prod or, iii) startled, as in experiment one, accompanied by shouting. Exit speed (m s−1) was recorded on release from the restraint. Maximum eye temperature was recorded continuously pre- and post-treatment. In experiment one, eye temperature dropped rapidly between 20 and 40 s following both treatments and returned to baseline between 60 and 80 s following hitting and between 100 and 120 s following startling. In experiment two, eye temperature dropped between 0 and 20 s, following both treatments, and returned to baseline by 180 s, following startling plus shouting, but did not return to baseline for five minutes following electric prod. Exit speed tended to be faster following the electric prod. In conclusion, IRT detected responses that were due possibly to fear and/or pain associated with the procedures and may therefore be a useful, non-invasive method for assessing aversiveness of handling practices to cattle.
We assessed patterns of enteric infections caused by 14 pathogens, in a longitudinal cohort study of sequelae in British Columbia (BC) Canada, 2005–2014. Our population cohort of 5.8 million individuals was followed for an average of 7.5 years/person; during this time, 40 523 individuals experienced 42 308 incident laboratory-confirmed, provincially reported enteric infections (96.4 incident infections per 100 000 person-years). Most individuals (38 882/40 523; 96%) had only one, but 4% had multiple concurrent infections or more than one infection across the study. Among individuals with more than one infection, the pathogens and combinations occurring most frequently per individual matched the pathogens occurring most frequently in the BC population. An additional 298 557 new fee-for-service physician visits and hospitalisations for enteric infections, that did not coincide with a reported enteric infection, also occurred, and some may be potentially unreported enteric infections. Our findings demonstrate that sequelae risk analyses should explore the possible impacts of multiple infections, and that estimating risk for individuals who may have had a potentially unreported enteric infection is warranted.
Compare rates, clinical characteristics, and outcomes of paediatric palliative care consultation in children supported on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation admitted to a single-centre 16-bed cardiac or a 28-bed paediatric ICU.
Methods:
Retrospective review of clinical characteristics and outcomes of children (aged 0–21 years) supported on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation between January, 2017 and December, 2019 compared by palliative care consultation.
Measurements and results:
One hundred children (N = 100) were supported with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation; 19% received a palliative care consult. Compared to non-consulted children, consulted children had higher disease severity measured by higher complex chronic conditions at the end of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation hospitalisation (5 versus. 3; p < 0.001), longer hospital length of stay (92 days versus 19 days; p < 0.001), and higher use of life-sustaining therapies after decannulation (79% versus 23%; p < 0.001). Consultations occurred mainly for longitudinal psychosocial-spiritual support after patient survived device deployment with a median of 27 days after cannulation. Most children died in the ICU after withdrawal of life-sustaining therapies regardless of consultation status. Over two-thirds of the 44 deaths (84%; n = 37) occurred during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation hospitalisation.
Conclusions:
Palliative care consultation was rare showing that palliative care consultation was not viewed as an acute need and only considered when the clinical course became protracted. As a result, there are missed opportunities to involve palliative care earlier and more frequently in the care of extracorporeal membrane survivors and non-survivors and their families.
Patient and public involvement (PPI) in suicide research is ethical, moral and can deliver impact. However, inconsistent reporting of meaningful PPI, and hesitancy in sharing power with people with experience of suicidality (i.e.co-researchers) in research makes it difficult to understand the full potential impact of PPI on the research, researchers and co-researchers.
Objectives
To describe how our ecological momentary assessment (EMA) study, examining the sleep-suicide relationship in young psychiatric inpatients (aged 18-35) transitioning to the community, has been co-produced, whilst reflecting on impact, challenges, and recommendations.
Methods
We built on our experience of co-produced mental health research to conduct meaningful PPI in our study. Young adults with experience of psychiatric inpatient care and suicidality were appointed November 2020 to work across all research stages. Reflections on challenges, recommendations and impact have been collected throughout.
Results
Three young people became co-researchers. Researcher and co-researcher reflections indicated establishing and maintaining safe environments for open discussion, and continued communication (e.g.WhatsApp group) were vital to effectively share power and decision making. Safeguarding and support requirements for both co-researchers (e.g.individualised strategy) and researcher (e.g.clinical supervision) were particularly evident. To date, the co-produced recruitment poster, research documentation, and research article have demonstrated significant impact.
Conclusions
This is the first EMA study focused on suicide-sleep during transitions to be co-produced with young people with experience of suicidality. Co-producing suicide research is intensive, time-consuming, and challenging but makes a significant impact to the research, researchers, and co-researchers. We expect our learning will directly influence, and help others produce, meaningful co-produced suicide research.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Use an easily accessible medium to educate life science researchers and academic innovators interested in the commercialization of academic research at the University of Michigan (UM). METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Life science research investigators and academic innovators interested in research commercialization and technology development from across the state of Michigan were invited to attend the Idea to Impact: The Translation & Commercialization of Academic Research webinar series, presented by Fast Forward Medical Innovation at the University of Michigan. The webinar series outlined the significance and critical milestones of developing novel therapeutics, medical devices, diagnostics, and digital health innovations, as well as essential collaborations with industry partners to translate a research-based idea into a product of impact. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: 113 investigators and innovators from 28 different institutions, organizations, and companies, registered for the webinar series. Results (N=24) of an evaluation immediately following each webinar revealed that 100% of respondents strongly agreed or agreed that the series was effective in helping them to identify and describe commercialization resources, including funding, education, and mentorship, available at the University of Michigan and within the state. Participants stated that they “loved the practical information” “shared” and that the series was a “great overview that inspired a lot more questions.” The Fast Forward Medical Innovation team was then able to consult with participants to connect them with additional resources. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The data suggests that easily accessible and digestible commercialization education can make navigating the academic entrepreneurial ecosystem easier for investigators and innovators. The recorded webinar series, Idea to Impact: The Translation & Commercialization of Academic Research, serves this purpose.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: The University of Michigan Frankel Cardiovascular Center (FCVC) Innovation Challenge is an annual competition offering funding for innovative ideas to improve cardiovascular care. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, administrators converted the recruitment process and pitch event to fully virtual. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: We detail the process of converting the event from a hybrid process (virtual and in-person recruiting and in-person event) to a fully virtual one. Changes to the event included implementing a virtual recruiting process utilizing short video recordings as submission format; a new tool for storing and displaying submissions; fully virtual finalist selection and coaching; and a fully virtual pitch and judging event. The submission process tracked information about submissions that include the type of idea (process or product), role of team lead, and department of team lead. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: The FCVC Innovation Challenge was successfully converted to a fully virtual event. Methods and tools will be shared to allow similar institutions to replicate a successful virtual pitch event. These include methods and tools utilized to allow participants to describe their ideas, strategies to select and coach finalists, and to host a virtual pitch event. Data will be shared on the number of ideas and category (product/process) of projects submitted, and number and category of finalists selected. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: This case review can demonstrate how institutions can use a similar virtual idea submission and pitch process to (1) catalyze innovative ideas that can impact patient care by accessing its communitys ideas and (2) fund innovative ideas that do not fit traditional mechanisms.
OBJECTIVES/GOALS: Ask the Experts: A Biomedical Innovation Forum, presented by Fast Forward Medical Innovation (FFMI) at the University of Michigan, provided an opportunity to educate biomedical innovators on life science investment trends and technology assessment criteria. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: FFMI, in partnership with the U.S. Economic Development Administration, recruited an expert group of panelists to be featured at this virtual event. These life science investment experts provided insight on the strategy, timing, and best method for innovators to engaged investors, the specifics of what investors look for in technologies and project teams, and expectations of investors and project teams after the investment is secured. The panel presentation was followed by a poster presentation highlighting projects from the FFMI Hub at the University of Michigan, allowing innovators to have an open and constructive conversation with experts and attendees. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: There was a total of 73 registrants including academic faculty, biomedical innovators, and life science investment professionals from 21 different academic institutions, private companies, and other organizations. 50 attended the panel presentation and poster session. Results (N=5) of an evaluation of the event revealed that 100% of the respondents strongly agreed or agreed that the event met their expectations, while 80% strongly agreed or agreed that they would recommend the event to a colleague. Feedback from poster presenters was also strong with presenters exclaiming they “enjoyed the panel discussion and getting one-on-one time with the panelists,” as well as “a lot of great advice was given by the experts” and “I really liked the poster presentation part in which I got feedback from the investors.” DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The data demonstrates how accelerating technology mining activities, proactively seeking and strengthening external partnerships with investors, and scaling commercialization education programs can have a positive impact on the development and launch of biomedical innovations.
Racial disparities in colorectal cancer (CRC) can be addressed through increased adherence to screening guidelines. In real-life encounters, patients may be more willing to follow screening recommendations delivered by a race concordant clinician. The growth of telehealth to deliver care provides an opportunity to explore whether these effects translate to a virtual setting. The primary purpose of this pilot study is to explore the relationships between virtual clinician (VC) characteristics and CRC screening intentions after engagement with a telehealth intervention leveraging technology to deliver tailored CRC prevention messaging.
Methods:
Using a posttest-only design with three factors (VC race-matching, VC gender, intervention type), participants (N = 2267) were randomised to one of eight intervention treatments. Participants self-reported perceptions and behavioral intentions.
Results:
The benefits of matching participants with a racially similar VC trended positive but did not reach statistical significance. Specifically, race-matching positively influenced screening intentions for Black participants but not for Whites (b = 0.29, p = 0.10). Importantly, perceptions of credibility, attractiveness, and message relevance significantly influenced screening intentions and the relationship with race-matching.
Conclusions:
To reduce racial CRC screening disparities, investments are needed to identify patient-focused interventions to address structural barriers to screening. This study suggests that telehealth interventions that match Black patients with a Black VC can enhance perceptions of credibility and message relevance, which may then improve screening intentions. Future research is needed to examine how to increase VC credibility and attractiveness, as well as message relevance without race-matching.
Although exposure therapy (ET) is an effective treatment for anxiety disorders and obsessive-compulsive disorder, many clinicians report not utilizing it. The present study targeted common utilization barriers by evaluating an intensive ET training experience in a relatively inexperienced sample of pre-professionals. Thirty-two individuals at the undergraduate or college graduate level without formal clinical experience participated as camp counsellors in a 5day exposure-based therapeutic summer camp for youth with anxiety disorders and/or obsessive-compulsive disorder. Participants were trained in ET through a progressive cascading model and answered questionnaires before and after camp. Repeated measure MANOVA revealed significantly increased feelings of self-efficacy conducting exposures, and significantly decreased feelings of disgust sensitivity and contamination-related disgust from pre-camp to post-camp. A subset of individuals providing data 1 month after the camp maintained a significant gain in ET self-efficacy. Regression analyses revealed that contamination-related disgust, but not disgust sensitivity, significantly predicted post-camp ET self-efficacy. These findings suggest that individuals early into their post-secondary education can learn ET, and the progressive cascading model holds promise in its utility across experience levels and warrants further investigation. Disgust may also play a role in feelings of competency conducting ET. Implications on dissemination and implementation efforts are also discussed.
Key learning aims
(1) How can training of CBT techniques such as exposure occur prior to graduate education?
(2) Can self-efficacy in conducting exposures meaningfully increase in an experiential training of pre-professionals?
(3) How does an individual’s tolerance of disgust impact feelings of competence conducting exposures?
Substantial progress has been made in the standardization of nomenclature for paediatric and congenital cardiac care. In 1936, Maude Abbott published her Atlas of Congenital Cardiac Disease, which was the first formal attempt to classify congenital heart disease. The International Paediatric and Congenital Cardiac Code (IPCCC) is now utilized worldwide and has most recently become the paediatric and congenital cardiac component of the Eleventh Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). The most recent publication of the IPCCC was in 2017. This manuscript provides an updated 2021 version of the IPCCC.
The International Society for Nomenclature of Paediatric and Congenital Heart Disease (ISNPCHD), in collaboration with the World Health Organization (WHO), developed the paediatric and congenital cardiac nomenclature that is now within the eleventh version of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11). This unification of IPCCC and ICD-11 is the IPCCC ICD-11 Nomenclature and is the first time that the clinical nomenclature for paediatric and congenital cardiac care and the administrative nomenclature for paediatric and congenital cardiac care are harmonized. The resultant congenital cardiac component of ICD-11 was increased from 29 congenital cardiac codes in ICD-9 and 73 congenital cardiac codes in ICD-10 to 318 codes submitted by ISNPCHD through 2018 for incorporation into ICD-11. After these 318 terms were incorporated into ICD-11 in 2018, the WHO ICD-11 team added an additional 49 terms, some of which are acceptable legacy terms from ICD-10, while others provide greater granularity than the ISNPCHD thought was originally acceptable. Thus, the total number of paediatric and congenital cardiac terms in ICD-11 is 367. In this manuscript, we describe and review the terminology, hierarchy, and definitions of the IPCCC ICD-11 Nomenclature. This article, therefore, presents a global system of nomenclature for paediatric and congenital cardiac care that unifies clinical and administrative nomenclature.
The members of ISNPCHD realize that the nomenclature published in this manuscript will continue to evolve. The version of the IPCCC that was published in 2017 has evolved and changed, and it is now replaced by this 2021 version. In the future, ISNPCHD will again publish updated versions of IPCCC, as IPCCC continues to evolve.
Lockdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic temporarily restricted human activity and removed people from many places of work and recreation. The resulting ‘Anthropause’ generated much media and research interest and has become an important storyline in the public history of the pandemic. As an ecological event, the Anthropause is fleeting and unlikely to alter the long-term human impact on the planet. But the Anthropause is also a cultural symbol whose effects may be more enduring. Will the Anthropause inspire people and governments to mobilize for meaningful reform, or does it present a misleading and too-comforting portrayal of resilient nature and wildlife that could ultimately discourage action? While it is too early to gauge the impact of the Anthropause on human behaviour and politics, we use existing research on environmental symbols and metaphors to identify factors that may influence long-term behavioural and political responses to this globally significant period of time.
Retrospectively apply criteria from Center to Advance Palliative Care to a cohort of children treated in a cardiac ICU and compare children who received a palliative care consultation to those who were eligible for but did not receive one.
Methods:
Medical records of children admitted to a cardiac ICU between January 2014 and June 2017 were reviewed. Selected criteria include cardiac ICU length of stay >14 days and/or ≥ 3 hospitalisations within a 6-month period.
Measurements and Results:
A consultation occurred in 17% (n = 48) of 288 eligible children. Children who received a consult had longer cardiac ICU (27 days versus 17 days; p < 0.001) and hospital (91 days versus 35 days; p < 0.001) lengths of stay, more complex chronic conditions at the end of first hospitalisation (3 versus1; p < 0.001) and the end of the study (4 vs.2; p < 0.001), and higher mortality (42% versus 7%; p < 0.001) when compared with the non-consulted group. Of the 142 pre-natally diagnosed children, only one received a pre-natal consult and 23 received it post-natally. Children who received a consultation (n = 48) were almost 2 months of age at the time of the consult.
Conclusions:
Less than a quarter of eligible children received a consultation. The consultation usually occurred in the context of medical complexity, high risk of mortality, and at an older age, suggesting potential opportunities for more and earlier paediatric palliative care involvement in the cardiac ICU. Screening criteria to identify patients for a consultation may increase the use of palliative care services in the cardiac ICU.
The prespecification of the network is one of the biggest hurdles for applied researchers in undertaking spatial analysis. In this letter, we demonstrate two results. First, we derive bounds for the bias in nonspatial models with omitted spatially-lagged predictors or outcomes. These bias expressions can be obtained without prior knowledge of the network, and are more informative than familiar omitted variable bias formulas. Second, we derive bounds for the bias in spatial econometric models with nondifferential error in the specification of the weights matrix. Under these conditions, we demonstrate that an omitted spatial input is the limit condition of including a misspecificed spatial weights matrix. Simulated experiments further demonstrate that spatial models with a misspecified weights matrix weakly dominate nonspatial models. Our results imply that, where cross-sectional dependence is presumed, researchers should pursue spatial analysis even with limited information on network ties.
Gravitational waves from coalescing neutron stars encode information about nuclear matter at extreme densities, inaccessible by laboratory experiments. The late inspiral is influenced by the presence of tides, which depend on the neutron star equation of state. Neutron star mergers are expected to often produce rapidly rotating remnant neutron stars that emit gravitational waves. These will provide clues to the extremely hot post-merger environment. This signature of nuclear matter in gravitational waves contains most information in the 2–4 kHz frequency band, which is outside of the most sensitive band of current detectors. We present the design concept and science case for a Neutron Star Extreme Matter Observatory (NEMO): a gravitational-wave interferometer optimised to study nuclear physics with merging neutron stars. The concept uses high-circulating laser power, quantum squeezing, and a detector topology specifically designed to achieve the high-frequency sensitivity necessary to probe nuclear matter using gravitational waves. Above 1 kHz, the proposed strain sensitivity is comparable to full third-generation detectors at a fraction of the cost. Such sensitivity changes expected event rates for detection of post-merger remnants from approximately one per few decades with two A+ detectors to a few per year and potentially allow for the first gravitational-wave observations of supernovae, isolated neutron stars, and other exotica.
Deaths due to opioid overdose have reached unprecedented levels in Canada; over 12,800 opioid-related deaths occurred between January 2016 and March 2019, and overdose death rates increased by approximately 50% from 2016 to 2018.1 In 2016, Health Canada declared the opioid epidemic a national public health crisis,2 and life expectancy increases have halted in Canada for the first time in decades.3 Children are not exempt from this crisis, and the Chief Public Health Officer of Canada has recently prioritized the prevention of problematic substance use among Canadian youth.4
The concentration of radiocarbon (14C) differs between ocean and atmosphere. Radiocarbon determinations from samples which obtained their 14C in the marine environment therefore need a marine-specific calibration curve and cannot be calibrated directly against the atmospheric-based IntCal20 curve. This paper presents Marine20, an update to the internationally agreed marine radiocarbon age calibration curve that provides a non-polar global-average marine record of radiocarbon from 0–55 cal kBP and serves as a baseline for regional oceanic variation. Marine20 is intended for calibration of marine radiocarbon samples from non-polar regions; it is not suitable for calibration in polar regions where variability in sea ice extent, ocean upwelling and air-sea gas exchange may have caused larger changes to concentrations of marine radiocarbon. The Marine20 curve is based upon 500 simulations with an ocean/atmosphere/biosphere box-model of the global carbon cycle that has been forced by posterior realizations of our Northern Hemispheric atmospheric IntCal20 14C curve and reconstructed changes in CO2 obtained from ice core data. These forcings enable us to incorporate carbon cycle dynamics and temporal changes in the atmospheric 14C level. The box-model simulations of the global-average marine radiocarbon reservoir age are similar to those of a more complex three-dimensional ocean general circulation model. However, simplicity and speed of the box model allow us to use a Monte Carlo approach to rigorously propagate the uncertainty in both the historic concentration of atmospheric 14C and other key parameters of the carbon cycle through to our final Marine20 calibration curve. This robust propagation of uncertainty is fundamental to providing reliable precision for the radiocarbon age calibration of marine based samples. We make a first step towards deconvolving the contributions of different processes to the total uncertainty; discuss the main differences of Marine20 from the previous age calibration curve Marine13; and identify the limitations of our approach together with key areas for further work. The updated values for ΔR, the regional marine radiocarbon reservoir age corrections required to calibrate against Marine20, can be found at the data base http://calib.org/marine/.