Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T19:10:21.435Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

HOW CHILD COSTS AND SURVIVAL SHAPED THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 August 2012

Holger Strulik  and
Jacob Weisdorf
Holger Strulik*
Affiliation:
University of Göttingen
Jacob Weisdorf
Affiliation:
University of Southern Denmark
*
Address correspondence to: Holger Strulik, Department of Economics, University of Göttingen, Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3, 37073 Göttingen, Germany; email: [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This study provides a unified growth theory to correctly predict the initially negative and subsequently positive relationship between child mortality and net reproduction observed in industrialized countries over the course of their demographic transitions. The model captures the intricate interplay between technological progress, mortality, fertility, and economic growth in the transition from Malthusian stagnation to modern growth. It not only provides an explanation for the demographic observation that fertility rates response with a delay to lower child mortality, but also identifies a number of turning points over the course of development, suggesting a high degree of complexity in the relationships between various economic and demographic variables.

Keywords

Economic GrowthMortalityFertilityStructural ChangeIndustrial Revolution
Type
Articles
Information
Macroeconomic Dynamics , Volume 18 , Issue 1 , January 2014 , pp. 114 - 144
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Andreoni, James (1989) Giving with impure altruism: Applications to charity and Ricardian equivalence. Journal of Political Economy 97, 1447–1458.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arrow, Kenneth J. (1962) The economic implications of learning-by-doing. Review of Economic Studies 29, 155–173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Azarnert, Leonid V. (2006) Child mortality, fertility, and human capital accumulation. Journal of Population Economics 19, 285–297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, Gary S. (1960) An economic analysis of fertility. In National Bureau of Economic Research (ed.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pp. 209–231. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Becker, Gary S. and Barro, Robert J. (1988) A reformulation of the theory of fertility. Quarterly Journal of Economics 103, 1–25.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Becker, Gary S. and Barro, Robert J. (1989) Fertility choice in a model of economic growth. Econometrica 57, 481–501.Google Scholar
Boucekkine, Raouf, de la Croix, David, and Licandro, Omar (2002) Vintage human capital, demographic trends, and endogenous growth. Journal of Economic Theory 104, 340–375.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caulfield, Laura E., de Onis, Mercedes, Bloessner, Monika, and Black, Robert E. (2004) Undernutrition as an underlying cause of child deaths associated with diarrhea, pneumonia, malaria, and measles. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 80, 193–198.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe (2005) Human capital formation, life expectancy, and the process of development. American Economic Review 95, 1653–1672.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Cervellati, Matteo and Sunde, Uwe (2007) Human Capital, Mortality and Fertility: A Unified Theory of the Economic and Demographic Transition. IZA discussion paper 2905.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cleland, John(2001) The Effects of Improved Survival on Fertility: A Reassessment. Population and Development Review 27 (Supplement), 60–92.Google Scholar
Cutler, David M., Deaton, Angus S., and Lleras-Muney, Adriana (2006) The determinants of mortality. Journal of Economic Perspectives 20, 97–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Matthias, Doepke (2004) Accounting for fertility decline during the transition to growth. Journal of Economic Growth 9, 347–383.Google Scholar
Matthias, Doepke (2005) Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro–Becker model fit the facts? Journal of Population Economics 18, 337–366.Google Scholar
Eckstein, Zvi, Mira, Pedro P., and Wolpin, Kenneth I. (1999) A quantitative analysis of Swedish fertility dynamics: 1751–1990, Review of Economic Dynamics 2, 137–165.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ehrlich, Isaac and Kim, Yinyang (2005) Endogenous fertility, mortality and economic growth: Can a Malthusian framework account for the conflicting historical trends in population? Journal of Asian Economics 16, 789–806.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galloway, Patrick R., Lee, Ronald D., and Hammel, Eugene (1998) Infant mortality and the fertility transition: Macro evidence form Europe and new findings from Prussia. In Montgomery, M.R. and Cohen, B. (eds.), From Death to Birth: Mortality Decline and Reproductive Change, pp. 182–226. Washington DC: National Academic Press.Google Scholar
Galor, Oded (2005) From stagnation to growth: Unified growth theory. In Aghion, Phillipe and Durlauf, Steven (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1A, pp. 171–193. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar
Galor, Oded (2011) Unified Growth Theory. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Galor, Oded and Moav, Omer (2002) Natural selection and the origin of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, 1133–1191.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded and Moav, Omer (2005) Natural Selection and the Evolution of Life Expectancy. Discussion paper, Hebrew University.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Galor, Oded and Mountford, Andrew (2008) Trading population for productivity: Theory and evidence. Review of Economic Studies 75, 1143–1179.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Galor, Oded and Weil, David N. (2000) Population, technology and growth: From the Malthusian regime to the demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review 110, 806–828.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harris, Bernard(2004) Public health, nutrition, and the decline of mortality: The McKeown thesis revisited. Social History of Medicine 17, 379–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hazan, Moshe and Zoabi, Hosni (2006) Does longevity cause growth? A theoretical critique. Journal of Economic Growth 11, 363–376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herzer, Dierk, Strulik, Holger, and Vollmer, Sebastian (2010) The Long-Run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900–1999. Harvard University PGDA working paper 63.Google Scholar
Jones, Charles I. (2001) Was an industrial revolution inevitable? Economic growth over the very long run. Advances in Macroeconomics 1, 1–43.Google Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (2002) Does the mortality decline promote economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth 7, 411–439.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem (2008) The uncertain lifetime and the timing of human capital investment, Journal of Population Economics 21, 557–572.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, Ryder, Harl E., and Weil, David N. (2000) Mortality decline, human capital investment, and economic growth. Journal of Development Economics 62, 1–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kögel, Thoma and Prskawetz, Alexia (2001) Agricultural productivity growth and escape from the Malthusian trap. Journal of Economic Growth 6, 337–357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kremer, Michael(1993) Population growth and technological change: One million B.C. to 1990. Quarterly Journal of Economics 108, 681–716.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lagerlof, Nils-Petter (2003) From Malthus to modern growth: The three regimes revisited. International Economic Review 44, 755–777.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Livi-Bacci, Massimo (2006) A Concise History of World Population. Oxford, UK: Wiley-Blackwell.Google Scholar
Lucas, Robert E. (2002) The Industrial Revolution: Past and Future. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Mokyr, Joel(2002) The Gifts of Athena. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Pelletier, David L., Frongillo, Edward A., and Habicht, Jean-Pierre (2003) Epidemiologic evidence for a potentiating effect of malnutrition on child mortality. American Journal of Public Health 83, 1130–1133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reher, David S. (2004) The demographic transition revisited as a global process. Population, Space and Place 10, 19–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Romer, Paul M. (1986) Increasing returns and long-run growth. Journal of Political Economy 94, 1002–1037.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rice, Amy L., Sacco, Lisa, Hyder, Adnan, and Black, Robert E. (2000) Malnutrition as an underlying cause of childhood deaths associated with infectious diseases in developing countries. Bulletin of the World Health Organization 78, 1207–1221.Google ScholarPubMed
Soares, Rodrigo R. (2005) Mortality reductions, educational attainment, and fertility choice. American Economic Review 95, 580–601.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Stearns, Stephen C. (1992) The Evolution of Life Histories. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Strulik, Holger(2008) Geography, health, and the pace of demo-economic development. Journal of Development Economics 86, 61–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strulik, Holger and Weisdorf, Jacob (2008) Population, food, and knowledge: A simple unified growth theory. Journal of Economic Growth 13, 169–194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tamura, Robert(2002) Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 27, 207–242.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weisdorf, Jacob(2004) From stagnation to growth: Revisiting three historical regimes. Journal of Population Economics 17, 455–472.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weisdorf, Jacob(2008) Malthus revisited: Fertility decision making based on quasi-linear preferences. Economics Letters 99, 127–130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williams, George C. (1957) Pleiotropy, natural selection, and the evolution of senescence. Evolution 11, 398–411.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Williams, P. D. and Day, T. (2003) Antagonistic pleiotropy, mortality source interactions, and the evolutionary theory of senescence, Evolution 57, 1478–1488.Google ScholarPubMed
Wrigley, E. A. (1969) Population and History. London: World University Library.Google Scholar
Wrigley, E. A., Davies, R. S., Oeppen, J. E., and Schofield, R. S. (1997) English Population History from Family Reconstitution, 1580–1837. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wrigley, E. A. and Schofield, R. S. (1981) The Population History of England 1541–1871: A Reconstruction. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar