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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 21 June 2018
This article evaluates the policy positions of President James Buchanan through the concept of latent opinion, or politicians worrying less about current public opinion and more about what it will be at the next election. Though Buchanan is often viewed as disconnected from the public’s opinions, the evidence shows that his positions on Kansas statehood and the acquisition of Cuba (or Mexican territory) were shaped by his perceptions of, and concerns over, what future public opinion would be in 1860. Though Buchanan was ultimately unsuccessful on both fronts, this study reveals that he was not simply unresponsive to public opinion, which is the common interpretation. Instead, the president’s policy positions were firmly tied to his views on latent opinion. Thus, the findings add a new dimension to scholarly understandings of James Buchanan’s policy priorities while displaying how latent opinion can be a beneficial construct in policy history.
1. In a systematic manner, this is best expressed by V. O. Key Jr., in the following way: “It may not do violence to the argument to translate it into the observation that certain attitudes or opinions may exist in the minds of men without their being activated politically. Given the relevant or appropriate stimulus, the opinion will be triggered into expression or action.” See Key, V. O. Jr., Public Opinion and American Democracy (New York, 1961), 264.Google Scholar
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