Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T07:38:43.128Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Diva and Destiny: Can the Voter Be Appeased With Fatalism?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Michel van Eeten
Affiliation:
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management at Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
Frederic Bouder
Affiliation:
Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences’ Department of Technology and Society Studies at Maastricht University, The Netherlands

Abstract

Over recent years there has been a growing concern for the tendency of modern Western public administrators and regulators to overregulate risk – also coined the risk-regulation-reflex (RRR). Too often public decision-makers react to instances of risk with knee-jerk interventions such as increased regulation and inspections. The underlying assumption behind this response is that fatalism, in the sense of accepting risk, is no longer tolerated by citizens and has no place in the current political discourse. This paper challenges that assumption and suggests, on the contrary, that political messages about accepting risk deserve a revival. A balanced perspective can help Western society avoid the pitfall of overreacting to risk.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1 Kip. Viscusi, W., .Fatal Tradeoffs: Public and Private Responsibilities for Risk (Oxford: Oxford University Press 1995)Google Scholar; Graham, JohnWhy Governments Need Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Management” in OECD (eds) Risk and regulatory policy: improving the governance of risk (Paris: OECD, 2010)Google Scholar.

2 De Goede, Marieke, “Repoliticising Financial Risk,” 33(2) Economy and Society, (2004), pp. 197217 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Rothstein, Henri, Huber, Michael and Gaskell, GeorgeA Theory of Risk Colonisation: The spiralling regulatory logics of societal and institutional risk”, 35 (1) Economy and Society (2006), pp. 91112 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Inspectorate of Education of the Netherlands, Risk-based inspection as of 2009: Primary and Secondary Education (The Hague: Inspectorate of Education, 2009)Google Scholar; Black, JuliaRisk-based regulation: choices, practices and lessons learnt”, in OECD (eds) Risk and regulatory policy: improving the governance of risk (Paris: OECD, 2010)Google Scholar; Löfstedt, Ragnar E. Risk versus Hazard – How to Regulate in the 21st Century European, 2 Journal of Risk Regulation (2011), pp.149168 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

3 Wiener, Jonathan B., Rogers, Michael D., Hammitt, James K., J., , and Sand, P. H., P., (eds) , The Reality of Precaution: Comparing Risk Regulation in the United States and Europe, (Washington DC and London: Resources for the Future, 2010)Google Scholar; Löfstedt, Ragnar E.Risk versus Hazard – How to Regulate in the 21st Century European”, 2(2) European Journal of Risk Regulation (2011), pp.149168 Google Scholar.

4 Löfstedt, Ragnar and Vogel, David, “The changing character of regulation: a comparison between Europe and the United States”, 21(3) Risk Analysis 21, (2001), pp.399405 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; Majone, Giandomenico, “Regulatory Legitimacy in the United States and the European Union”, in: Nicolaidis, Kalypso and Howse, Robert (eds), The Federal Vision, pp. 252274 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Vogel, David, The Politics of Precaution. Regulating Health, Safety, and Environmental Risks in Europe and the United States (Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

5 Bernstein, Peter L., Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1998)Google Scholar.

6 Graham, John D. and Wiener, Jonathan B. (eds.) Risk versus Risk: Tradeoffs in Protecting Health and the Environment (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995)Google Scholar.

7 Blalock, Garrick, Kadiyali, Vrinda en Simon, Daniel H. (2009), “Driving fatalities after 9/11: a hidden cost of terrorism”, Applied Economics, 41 (14), pp.17171729 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

8 Sivak, Michael, Flannagan, Michael J., “Consequences for road traffic fatalities of the reduction in flying following September 11, 2001”, Transportation Research Part F 7 (2004), pp.301305 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

9 Aaron Wildavsky provides an authoritative analysis of this problem in Searching For Safety (New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction Books, 1988). This point has been brought up by numerous authors in the past decade. See for example: Furedi, Frank, Culture of Fear, (London: Continuum, 2002)Google Scholar. See also his essay: “Precautionary culture and the rise of probabilistic risk assessment”, Erasmus Law Review, September 4, 2009.

10 See for example Luc Verhey, “Openbaar bestuur verkrampt door as” [“Government cramped by ash”], NRC Handelsblad, 20 April 2010.; Kees Camphuysen, “Ramp in Golf van Mexico wordt overdreven” [“Disaster in Gulf of Mexico exaggerated”], NRC Handelsblad, 10 May 2010.; Simon Jenkins, “Volcanic ash is the new swine flu panic”, The Guardian, 19 April 2010.

11 Frank Furedi, “Precautionary culture and the rise of probabilistic risk assessment”, Erasmus Law Review, September 4, 2009.

12 Trappenburg, Margot, “Waarom het allemaal niet lukt”, in van Tol, Jan, Helsloot, Ira, Mertens, Ferdinand (eds) Veiligheid boven alles? Essays over oorzaken en gevolgen van de risico-regelreflex. (Den Haag: Boom, 2011), pp. 3550 Google Scholar

13 About forty years ago economists and psychologists started to systematically uncover the cognitive factors that affect risk perceptions. The take home lesson of this major endeavour is that human rationality is much more complex than what conventional views on rational decision making would suggest. See among seminal papers Tversky, Amos and Kahneman, Daniel, “Judgement under Uncertainty. Heuristics and Biases”, 85 Science (1974) pp.11241131 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Fischhoff, Baruch, Slovic, Paul and Lichtenstein, SarahHow safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits”, 9 Policy Science (1978), pp.127152 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Slovic, Paul, “Perception of Risk”, 236 Science (1987), pp.280285 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

14 On the origins, pros and cons of risk tolerability models see Bouder, Frederic, Slavin, David and Löfstedt, Ragnar (Eds) The Tolerability of Risk: a New Framework for Risk Management, (London and Sterling (VA): Earthscan, 2007)Google Scholar.

15 For an illuminating discussion on the subject see Chapter 28 of Kahneman, Daniel, Thinking fast and slow, (London and New York: Penguin Books, 2011)Google Scholar.

16 J. Th. J. van den Berg, “De parlementaire orde is een politieke orde” [“Parliamentary order is a political order”], in: Tweede Kamer der Staten-Generaal, Vertrouwen en zelfvertrouwen: Analyse en aanbevelingen. Parlementaire zelfreflectie [Confidence and self-confidence: Analysis and recommendations. Legislative self-reflections], (The Hague, 2009) pp. 152.

17 See the discussion on “stories of decline” in Deborah Stone, Policy Paradox: The Art of Political Decision Making (third edition), (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2001).

18 Safranski, Rüdiger, How much globalization can we bear? (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2005)Google Scholar.

19 See for example Frissen, Paul, Gevaar verplicht: Over de noodzaak van aristocratische politiek [Danger required: On the need for aristocratic politics](Amsterdam: Gennep B.V., 2009)Google Scholar.

20 European Medicines Agency (EMA) Benefit/risk communication by the European Medicines Agency: a study of influential stakeholders” expectations and attitudes. (London: EMA, 2011)Google Scholar.

21 Marjolijn Drenth von Februar cites political philosopher Susan Mendus, who argued that modern liberal political theory is dominated by a desire to liberate the world from random forces. See von Februar, Marjolijn Drenth, “De voors en tegens van het lot” [“The pros and cons of fate”], in Boutellier, Hans (ed.), Leven in de risicosamenleving [Life in the risk society] (Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2005), pp.1926 Google Scholar.

22 TransLink Systems, press release January 15, 2008.

23 See for example Steennot, Reinhard, “Allocation of liability in case of fraudulent use of an electronic payment instrument: The new directive on payment services in the internal market”, 24 Computer Law and Security Report (2008), pp.555561 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.; Gerald Spindler, “Verantwortlichkeiten von IT-Herstellern, Nutzern und Intermediären: Studie im Auftrag des BSI durchgeführt von Prof. Dr. Gerald Spindler”, 2007. Available on the internet at <http://www.bsi.de/literat/studien/recht/Gutachten.pdf>. (last accessed on 16 July 2012)

24 Murdoch, Steven J., “Reliability of chip & PIN evidence in banking disputes”, 6 Digital Evidence and Electronic Signature Law Review (2009), pp. 98115. Available on the Internet at <http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/&sim;sjm217/papers/deaeslr09reliability.pdf> (last accessed on 16 July 2012)Google Scholar.

25 Gijsbert Bouw, “Internetbankieren is niet veilig”, Reformatorisch Dagblad, 2 February 2008, available on the Internet at <http://www.cs.ru.nl/B.Jacobs/PRESS/reformatorisch-dagblad-internetbankieren-02–01–08.txt> (last accessed on 16 July 2012).

26 Ross Anderson, Mike Bond and Steven J. Murdoch, “Chip and Spin”, 22 March 2006, available on the Internet at <http://www.cl.cam.ac.uk/users/sjm217/papers/cl05chipandspin.pdf> (last accessed on 16 July 2012).

27 APACS, Fraud: The facts 2009. The definitive overview of payment industry fraud and measures to prevent it, London, 2009. Available on the Internet at <http://www.theukcardsassociation.org.uk/files/fraud_the_facts_2009.pdf> (last accessed on 16 July 2012).

28 “Schade door skimmen 31 miljoen” [“Losses due to skimming 31 million”], NRC Handelsblad, 18 May 2009, available on the Internet at <http://www.nrc.nl/economie/article2244994.ece/Schade_door_skimmen_31_miljoen> (last accessed on 16 July 2012).

29 Which?, “Fraud victims struggle to get money back”, date ? 2009, available on the Internet at <http://www.which.co.uk/news/2009/06/fraud-victims-struggle-to-get-money-back-179150.jsp.> (last accessed on 16 July 2012). See also: Murdoch, “Reliability of chip & PIN evidence in banking disputes”, supra note 24.

30 See for example VISA, Payment card fraud, available on the Internet at <http://www.visaeurope.com/pressandmedia/factsheets/paymentcardfraud.jsp> (last accessed on 16 July 2012). See also: Richard J. Sullivan, The benefits of collecting and reporting payment fraud statistics for the United States, available on the Internet at <http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/PSR/Briefings/PSR-BriefingOct09.pdf> (last accessed on 16 July 2012).

31 Anderson, Ross and Moore, Tyler, “The economics of information security”, 314 Science (2006), pp.610613 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

32 Zittrain, Jonathan, The Future of the Internet: And How to Stop It, (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2008)Google Scholar.

33 Michael Sivak, Michael J. Flannagan (2004), Consequences for road traffic fatalities of the reduction in flying following September 11, 2001, F 7 Transportation Research Part (2004), pp. 301–305.; Blalock, Garrick, Kadiyali, Vrinda en Simon, Daniel H.Driving fatalities after 9/11: a hidden cost of terrorism”, 41 (14) Applied Economics, (2009), pp.17171729 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

34 Dutch Energy Council, “Eisen CO2-opslag Barendrecht worden verscherpt” [“Requirement for CO2 storage Barendrecht tightened”], available on the Internet at <http://www.energieraad.nl/newsitem.asp?pageid=15671> (last accessed on 16 July 2012).

35 Perrow, Charles, “The limits of safety: The enhancement of a theory of accidents”, 2 (4) Journal of Crisis and Contingencies Management (1994), pp.212220 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

36 Risk comparisons are known to be tricky. To avoid confusion they require formal analysis to ensure that defensible comparisons are being made and dedicated empirical research to ensure that the result is understood as intended. See on the subject Baruch Fischhoff, “Risk Comparisons”, 2007. Paper 64. Available on the Internet at <http://repository.cmu.edu/sds/64> (last accessed on 16 July 2012).

37 Renn, Ortwin and Levine, Debra, “Credibility and trust in risk communication”, in Kasperson, Roger E., and Stallen, Pieter J. (eds), Communicating Risk to the Public: International Perspectives, (Amsterdam: Kluwer, 1991)Google Scholar.; Löfstedt, Ragnar E., Risk Management in Post-Trust Societies (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2005)CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

38 Renn, Ortwin, Risk Governance; Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World (London: Earthscan, 2008)Google Scholar.

39 Baruch Fischhoff, “Acceptable risk: A conceptual proposal”, Risk: 1 Health, Safety & Environment(1994) :pp. 1–28,.

40 BBC News, “Vatican admits pontiff vulnerable to assault in public”, available on the Internet at <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8430621.stm> (last accessed on 16 July 2012).

41 Westen, Drew, The Political Brain: The Role of Emotion in Deciding the Fate of the Nation (New York: Public Affairs, 2007)Google Scholar.

42 McCain, John, Why Courage Matters: The Way to a Braver Life, (New York: Random House, 2004), pp.3536 Google Scholar.

43 Jos de Mul, De domesticatie van het noodlot: De wedergeboorte van de tragedie uit de geest van de technologie [The domestication of fate: The rebirth of tragedy out of the spirit of technology] (Zotermeer: Klement, 2006).

44 We thank Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens for this observation.