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Thinking the Unthinkable: Japanese nuclear power and proliferation in East Asia

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 May 2025

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As we reach the anniversary of the end of World War II, North-east Asia has changed in so many ways since the devastation brought about by years of conflict. But tragically, many historical problems remain unresolved. The Korean peninsula is still divided; the United States is the predominant military power in the region; and nationalism remains a powerful force in Japan, China and in the Koreas. These alone should give rise to major concern for the future peace and stability of the region. But the threats to peace in the region could soon get worse.

Type
Research Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-No Derivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
Copyright © The Authors 2005

References

1. Mainichi Shimbun, in its 1st August 1994 edition, revealed that a top secret Foreign Ministry document called “Our Nation's Foreign Policy Principles” was produced in 1969.

2. Total costs for the plant are US$21 billion. See, “Nuclear Twilight Zone”, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. May 2001.

3. Leventhal, P., “IAEA Safeguards Shortcomings: A Critique”, Nuclear Control Institute, Washington, DC., September 12 th, 1994

4. Miller, M. M., “Are IAEA Safeguards on Plutonium Bulk-Handling Facilities Effective?”, Nuclear Control Institute, Washington, DC., August 1990.

5. Nuclear Engineering International, Thorp board of enquiry report released, Nuclear Engineering International, 29th June 2005.

6. Frank Barnaby and Shaun Burnie, “Safeguards on the Rokkasho reprocessing plant”, Greenpeace International, June 2002. The U.S. Manhattan project for obvious reasons was launched without Congressional debate; both France and the UK launched theirs with limited cabinet involvement and no parliamentary debate; the Soviet and Chinese program were initiated under direct orders of Stalin and Mao; India announced their program with a nuclear test in 1974; Pakistan similarly in 1998; Israel still refuses to officially confirm its program exists; South Africa dismantled its weapons only after the end of Apartheid and democratic elections. Programs run by Australia, Switzerland, Germany, Sweden, South Korea and Taiwan to name the most sophisticated were done so in great secrecy, with limited parliamentary debate in a few cases.

7. The first English language report confirming Japan's nuclear weapons program was made by David Snell in the October 3rd edition of the Atlanta Constitution, the headline read, “Japan Developed Atomic Bomb - Russians Grabbed Scientists”. More substantive details on Japan's wartime bomb program, Genzai Bakudan, were provided by Deborah Shapely in Science, vol. 199, Jan. 13th, 1978. While Snell claimed that Japan progressed to the point where it conducted a nuclear test on August 10th 1945, off the coast of present day North Korea, there remain significant doubts that such a test took place. The latest thinking is that without sufficient fissile material Japan was 6-9 months away from an actual weapon.

8. Ozawa's statement was made during a lecture given in the southern City of Fukuoka, though was not supposed to be made public, April 2002, see Greenpeace International press statement, “Ozawa confirms nuclear weapons potential of Japan's plutonium program as further nuclear transports loom”, April 7th 2002.