Short Note: Paradigms need hypothesis testing: no evidence for top-down forcing on Adélie and emperor penguin populations

Extract

In their recent review article “Paradigm lost, or is top-down forcing no longer significant in the Antarctic marine ecosystem?” Ainley et al. (2007) questioned why Southern Ocean marine ecologists apparently have shifted to a central paradigm where bottom-up forcing by physics and climate change has become the single most important driver of food web dynamics in the Southern Ocean. Ainley et al. (2007) suggest that top-down forcing (forcing by biotic processes) is no longer considered in the interpretation of ecological research results aimed at understanding ecosystem processes of the Southern Ocean. Based on two examples from the literature they suggest that population trends could better be explained by including species interactions in the modelling rather than by changes in climate related physical processes alone. Nicol et al. (2007) questioned the paradigm shift proposed by Ainley et al. (2007) and made a broad review of the ecological research conducted in the Southern Ocean ecosystems. They concluded that there has been considerable research effort into ecosystem interactions over the last 25 years in the Southern Ocean, and that there seems little evidence that there has been an almost complete shift in paradigms; rather both bottom-up and top-down processes are recognized to govern ecosystems functioning.