7 - The Circles of Analysis: a complex systems model of trafficking and modern slavery

Summary

A system comprises a set of components. These components are organised in such a way as to create a series of mechanisms that produce, through their interaction, an output – namely, a pattern of exploitation. This may be deliberate (which is to say an intended purpose or goal), or it may be the unintended and unexpected outcome that is a product, or consequence, of the system's functioning (McDermott, 2014).

The arrangement of the Circles of Analysis model, set out in this chapter, is an adaptation of Felson and Cohen's Routine Activities theory (Felson and Cohen, 1980). In this new model, the circles represent three complex adaptive systems: the suitable target, the motivated offender and the conducive environment. The model posits human trafficking as a non-linear pattern (Byrne and Callaghan, 2014) that emerges from the interaction between the circles, represented at their intersection. The pattern of exploitation cannot be understood or predicted by examining each of the circles in isolation from each other, nor by seeking linear causal pathways, but as resulting logically from multiple antecedents, interactions and outputs that emerge at the intersections of each circle.

Human trafficking is an emergent pattern of behaviour and events that results from the interaction between suitable targets (victims) for the purpose of exploitation and other agents that are motivated to exploit them. However, the pattern cannot be predicted only from identifying the behaviour and characteristics of the potential victim or the perpetrator but as an aggregate of characteristics of the target as a complex adaptive system, characteristics of the perpetrator as a complex adaptive system and the characteristics of the environment from which they both originate and in which they both exist (Jennings, 2014).

Remember, human beings are themselves, complex adaptive systems. As such, we evolve through interaction with other systems within our environment becoming more and more complex (Pycroft and Bartollas, 2014). Logically, this means that the development and interactions of the victim and the perpetrator in the past have been different but have influenced the pattern of their current states; their knowledge and beliefs about their current context and their interactions with each other and the influences of their shared environment.